US risks falling behind China in rapid satellite launches, report warns
- Researchers say that China is probably ahead of the US in ability to quickly launch or replace satellites in event of conflict
- Country has been developing tactically responsive space launch abilities over the past decade, Georgetown University study says
China has probably surpassed the United States in its ability to quickly launch and replace satellites in the wake of a conflict or accident, according to a new report by an American university.
By developing relatively small, mobile, solid-fuel rockets which can lift off from a mobile platform rather than launch pads, China had advanced a critical capability known as tactically responsive space launch (TRSL) over the past decade, said researchers from the Centre for Security and Emerging Technology at Georgetown University in Washington.
In comparison, the US had performed only one stated demonstration of TRSL so far, with a second test planned for later this year, the researchers wrote in their 47-page report “Defending the Ultimate High Ground” which was published this month.
“Both countries have built extensive space-based assets for a wide range of economic, scientific and military applications. The ability to quickly replace damaged or destroyed satellites is a key component of space resilience,” said Sam Bresnick, the report’s co-author and a research fellow at the centre.
“The United States has the most advanced space industry in the world, but it has not demonstrated a commensurate ability to launch rockets on short notice.”
Bresnick and colleague Corey Crowell from the US Space Force used publicly available data to evaluate key aspects of China’s progress in space resilience in the last 10 years.
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However, the US remained ahead of China in most measures except for one – the quick launch capability, which would be needed in “a less likely but critical scenario” where satellites were under attack, Bresnick said.
Since 2002, China has designed and launched more than half a dozen models of solid-fuel rockets which are compatible with transporter erector launchers (TELs). This means that the rockets can be carried on a mobile platform such as a specialised truck to any flat, open area, and then raised vertically for launch.
Among these models, ExPace’s Kuaizhou-1A and the Long March 11 developed by the China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology are the workhorses with around 30 successful launches combined since 2013.
Meanwhile, launch vehicle developers in the US had prioritised larger, more efficient liquid-fuel rockets that depended on extensive launch infrastructure, Bresnick said.
Currently, the US only has two solid-fuel rockets – Pegasus XL and Minotaur, both of which are produced by Northrop Grumman and based on designs from three decades ago. Neither is TEL-compatible: the Pegasus is launched from an aircraft and the Minotaur needs to be launched from a pad.
As of 2023, the US government has provided relatively limited funding for the development of quick launch vehicles: US$15 million in 2021, US$50 million last year and the same again this year, the report said.
“To close the gap with China, the US government might consider developing strategies for managing stored inventories of satellites and rockets, increasing investments in solid-fuel launch vehicles, and partnering with commercial launch providers to develop and maintain liquid-fuel launch vehicles for TRSL,” the report recommended.
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Last week saw the latest Kuaizhou launch, when a rocket lifted off from the the Jiuquan centre in the Gobi Desert and sent four satellites into low-Earth orbits as part of a commercial meteorological constellation to be completed in 2025.
The Kuaizhou-1A can be launched within seven days of arriving at a launch site, according to state broadcaster CCTV.
It only needs a flat, hard ground the size of a basketball court to launch, and is particularly suited for the rapid assembly of satellite constellations or launching replacement satellites for an existing constellation.
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“The Kuaizhou series of rockets will have eight to 10 more launch missions in the second half of 2023,” the Kuaizhou-1A’s deputy chief designer Zhai Haitao told CCTV.
“We are also working to shift our business model from an order implementer to a ‘rocket supermarket’, aiming to mass-produce and store rockets in advance, so clients can choose from our inventory like shopping from a supermarket.”
