China’s rising Covid cases and new variant spark concerns about ‘third wave’

The country’s coronavirus infections rebound, mirroring global trend, while immunity-evading EG.5 variant gains dominance
Despite a surge in cases, the new strain does not appear to bring increase in severe illness or death

Coronavirus China

Dannie Peng

Published: 9:31pm, 17 Aug 2023

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An uptick in China’s Covid-19 infections and concerns about new variant EG.5 have led to speculation about whether the country is experiencing a “third wave” of coronavirus cases, but public health data suggests the risk of severe illness and death remains low.

According to the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the infection rate steadily declined from the end of May, hitting a low of 12 per cent in mid-July, but then saw a slight rebound, reaching 13.4 per cent by the end of the month.

This mirrors a global trend of rising Covid-19 cases. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), there were 1.5 million new cases globally from July 10 to August 6, representing an 80 per cent increase compared to the previous month.

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Peng Jie, an infectious disease clinical expert, told the Post he had noticed a rise in Covid-19 patients at his hospital in Guangdong province.

“The primary reason [for this increase] is that some individuals who were infected with Covid before have experienced a decline in their immunity against the virus over time,” Peng said, adding that the virus would continue to cause minor waves of infection.

The rise of new variant EG.5 is driving up infections and raising concerns. The WHO classified it as a “variant of interest” last week.

Disease control authorities in the city of Foshan in Guangdong said on Wednesday that the EG.5 variant was gaining dominance among the strains in the city.

The EG.5 variant was first detected in February. It is a descendant of the Omicron variant XBB.1.9.2 and has a mutation that helps it evade antibodies developed by the immune system in response to earlier variants and vaccines.

Globally, there has been a steady increase in the proportion of EG.5 infections. By mid-July, the global prevalence of EG.5 had reached 17.4 per cent. It was a notable rise from about a month earlier when the global prevalence of EG.5 was just 7.6 per cent. It became the dominant variant in the United States this week.

As of August 7, a total of 7,354 sequences of Omicron EG.5 from 51 countries had been submitted to GISAID, an international viral genome database. The largest portion, or 30.6 per cent, was submitted from China.

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Speculation about a third wave has also spread on Chinese social media, where Foshan’s EG.5 cases became a top trending topic and users shared their experience of contracting Covid-19.

Beijing resident Guo said on WeChat that he developed a high fever, headache, night sweats and diarrhoea while on a business trip in early August. A rapid antigen test later confirmed he was infected with the coronavirus.

However, Jin Dong-yan, a virologist at the University of Hong Kong, said it was too early to say if the latest increase in infections qualified as a third wave because mainland China no longer required mass testing, and it would be difficult for the government to monitor cases in detail.

Although the EG.5 variant has caused an increase in countries such as the US, Jin said it had not led to a higher infection rate worldwide or caused a significant rise in severe cases and deaths.

Despite the surge in cases, China’s severe illness numbers have declined. Compared to June, the number of severe cases and deaths reported in July decreased by 1,513 and 174 respectively, according to data from China’s CDC.

In its latest announcement, the WHO said that, based on the available evidence, “the public health risk posed by EG.5 is evaluated as low at the global level”.