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Climate change: scientists say strong typhoons are arriving earlier, overlapping with extreme summer rain
- Researchers in China and US find intense tropical cyclones hit about two weeks earlier on average than in 1980s because of rising sea temperatures
- This increases risk that storms will coincide with heavy seasonal rain, causing ‘disproportionate and more destructive’ damage, they say
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Rising ocean temperatures have caused strong typhoons to occur around two weeks earlier on average than they did 40 years ago, making them more likely to overlap with extreme rainfall in the summer, according to a study by scientists in China and the United States.
The researchers warned that severe typhoons combined with heavy rainfall could have a devastating impact and recommended “adaptation planning” to protect those at high risk of damage from tropical cyclones.
The team from Tsinghua University in Beijing, Southern University of Science and Technology in Shenzhen, Ocean University of China in Qingdao and the University of Hawaii at Manoa published their findings in the peer-reviewed journal Nature last week.
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Their analysis of satellite data from 1981 to 2017 showed that intense tropical cyclones, with a maximum wind speed greater than 203.7km/h (126.6mph), have been happening earlier in both the northern and southern hemispheres. For each decade since the 1980s, these storms have shifted 3.7 days earlier on average in the northern hemisphere and 3.2 days earlier in the southern hemisphere.
The shift is only notable for strong typhoons, not less severe ones, according to the study.
The team found that greenhouse gas emissions have caused ocean water temperatures to rise earlier, leading to the earlier onset of intense tropical cyclones.
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