Rubbish in, rubbish out: China university study finds methane emissions hole in climate change models

Cutting the amount of municipal waste going into landfill could help achieve global targets, but it needs to be done ‘rapidly’

About 90 per cent of emissions from the sector could be eliminated by 2050 with existing technologies, the researchers said

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China, together with the US, produces the most municipal waste, with more than 50 per cent of China’s output going into landfills. Photo: Getty Images

Published: 4:13pm, 20 Nov 2023Updated: 4:28pm, 20 Nov 2023

Global warming will exceed 2 degrees Celsius if a huge hole in climate modelling is not plugged quickly, according to a study led by scientists from the Malaysian branch of China’s Xiamen University.

Under current emissions forecasts, methane emissions from solid waste will exceed global targets by the middle of the century, said the researchers in a paper published on Friday by the journal Science.

Reducing the amount of waste going into landfill is vital if a cut in methane emissions is to be achieved, and about 90 per cent of the solid waste industry’s contribution could be eliminated by 2050 with existing technology, the researchers said.

Despite a global pledge to achieve a 30 per cent cut in methane emissions by 2030, the scientists said they found no existing analysis on the effects of different ways of managing general municipal waste from households and businesses.

“No global analysis has considered the warming that could be averted through improved solid waste management,” they said.

Co-author Kok Sin Woon, associate professor at Xiamen University Malaysia’s school of energy and chemical engineering, told the South China Morning Post that the global adoption of mitigation strategies will require abrupt “technical and behavioural changes”.

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