Did rapid climate changes trigger social unrest in China over past 4,000 years?

China-US team of researchers finds links between cold, dry periods and episodes of large-scale civil disruption in lake sediments

Study identifies ‘intricate’ relationship between climate patterns and the disruptive migrations of nomadic tribes

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Scientists from China and the US studied sediments from a lake in the central province of Shanxi for evidence of links between changes in climate and the historical record. Photo: Shutterstock

Published: 4:00pm, 10 Mar 2024

Rapid cooling and drying may have contributed to some of the conflicts and extensive civil social unrest in ancient agrarian China, new climate analysis has revealed.

Researchers in China and the United States found that “cold-dry climates may play a substantial role in facilitating episodes of large-scale civil social unrest only when accompanied by intensified social tensions”.

Climate conditions have been key in driving social changes in human history because of their influence on agricultural productivity and resources, they said in an article published by Science Bulletin, a peer-reviewed journal supervised by the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS).

“Our study enhances the understanding of climate change and the historical evolution of ancient civilisations in northern China by providing crucial insights into effective moisture dynamics,” the researchers said.

The team included scientists from the CAS’ State Key Laboratory of Lake Science and Environment, the Key Laboratory of Surficial Geochemistry at Nanjing University and the Department of Earth Science at the University of California, Santa Barbara.

To find out the precise role of climate change in ancient social unrest, the team looked for clues in northern China’s Central Plains region, where an agrarian civilisation emerged around 4,000 years ago.