China faces 3% GDP loss as heatwaves intensify, hit global supply chains: climate change study

More frequent and intense global heatwaves will disrupt supply chains and trigger domino effect of GDP loss among major economies, new study says

Warming of 4 degrees to 7 degrees Celsius might see China lose 3 to 5 per cent of GDP by 2050, lead author warns in calling for resilient trade links

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A wildfire burns during heatwave spring conditions in Western Australia in November. The frequency and intensity of heatwaves is forecast to increase as global temperatures rise under climate change. Photo: DFES via AP

Published: 12:00am, 14 Mar 2024Updated: 11:08am, 14 Mar 2024

More frequent and severe global heatwaves will disrupt future supply chains around the world, a new study has found.

This is expected to trigger a domino effect of losses in major economies including China, which could see GDP loss of up to 5 per cent in just over 25 years, according to the international team of scientists behind the study.

Even temperate countries rarely affected directly by heat stress will not be spared, the study suggests. These are likely to face the knock-on effects as extreme heat hits production in supplier nations, posing risks to food security, energy and mineral products supply worldwide.

The frequency and intensity of heatwaves is forecast to increase as global temperatures rise under climate change. Exposure to extremely high temperatures can cause heat exhaustion and heatstroke, leading even to permanent disability or death.

“By 2060, expected global economic losses will range from 0.6 to 4.6 per cent,” the team of climate scientists and economists said in their findings published in the peer-reviewed journal Nature on Thursday.