Tibetan lakes are estimated to expand 50% by 2100: Chinese study

Lakes in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in southwest China are expected to increase by 600 billion tonnes by the year 2100

A study has predicted the impact of climate change on the region could cost around US$2.7 billion to US$6.9 billion

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Lakes in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are set to increase massively in water volume and surface area as a result of climate change according to a new study. Photo: Shutterstock

Published: 10:00am, 3 Jun 2024

By the end of the century, the surface area of some lakes in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau could increase by more than 50 per cent – while other lakes around the world shrink – a new study has found.

The water volume of the lakes in the plateau in southwest China is estimated to expand by more than 600 billion tonnes, largely due to increased rainfall caused by climate warming, as well as the melting of glaciers.

If these predictions are correct, the researchers said it could have a massive economic impact on China, running into the billions.

“Our results suggest that by 2100, even under a low-emissions scenario, the surface area of endorheic lakes on the Tibetan Plateau will increase by over 50 per cent (around 20,000 sq km [7,722 square miles]) and water levels will rise by around 10 metres [32 feet] relative to 2020,” the scientists wrote in a paper published in the peer-reviewed journal Nature Geoscience on May 27. Endorheic lakes, also known as closed lakes, do not have an outlet to drain into.

The team from China, Wales, Saudi Arabia, the United States and France said that this would correspond to a fourfold increase in water storage compared to what the area experienced over the last 50 years.

If steps are not taken to mitigate this, “more than 1,000 km of roads, approximately 500 settlements and around 10,000 sq km of ecological components such as grasslands, wetlands and croplands,” will become submerged, the team said.