Does climate change accelerate EV battery ageing? Not so fast, researchers say

As electric vehicle (EV) use surges globally, scientists have raised concerns about the performance of such batteries in high temperatures, including the possible impact of climate change on their usable lifespan. But a study published this month by researchers in China and the US has found that major advances in EV battery technologies will mitigate the impact of future warming. They studied the impact by creating an advanced model that captures future climate change and EV battery degradation for 300 cities around the world. “Our study demonstrates that technological advancements in battery technology have largely offset future adverse effects of climate warming on battery lifespans,” the team said in a March 2 paper published in the peer-reviewed journal Nature Climate Change. The researchers from the University of Michigan, Peking University and Zhejiang University discovered that a 2-degree Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) rise in global temperature would on average lead to an 8 per cent reduction in the lifespan of old batteries, with a maximum decline of 30 per cent. Under the same amount of warming, new batteries introduced in the market since 2019 would be expected to undergo an average lifespan reduction of 3 per cent, with a maximum decline of 10 per cent. Wu Haochi, the paper’s lead author and now a postdoctoral researcher at Stanford University, said the major improvements in modern commercial batteries were not just from individual breakthroughs but rather a “whole engineering achievement”. This included advances in battery components, electrode materials, electrolytes and the overall manufacturing process, according to the paper. Global EV adoption has surged in recent years, largely driven by China’s expanding domestic demand and overseas exports. EVs went from accounting for just 3 per cent of all new car sales in 2019 to 18 per cent in 2023, the paper said. Decarbonising transport and diversifying away from fossil fuels has become increasingly desirable, especially as the US-Israel war on Iran highlights the vulnerability of global oil and gas supplies. Studies have shown that the performance and longevity of energy technologies, including EV batteries and solar panels, can be vulnerable to temperature extremes. In particular, high temperatures can cause batteries to undergo chemical stress and undesirable side reactions. This contributes to both calendar ageing – the degradation that happens after manufacturing – and cycling ageing – usage degradation that directly results from battery charge and discharge. “As climate change increases temperatures and the frequency and magnitude of extreme heat, calendar and cycling ageing could accelerate with greater heat exposure but also decelerate with less exposure to extreme cold,” the team wrote. However, existing research “has not quantified the effect of future climate change on battery performance and lifetime”, which was of concern to both manufacturers and consumers, they added. To examine this effect, the researchers created an integrated model combining EV simulation and degradation models with high-resolution climate data. “We created a really integrated analytical framework that simulates the entire life cycle of an EV battery [in a] changing climate,” said Wu, who proposed the model. Using the Tesla Model 3 as its higher-end battery representative and the Nissan Leaf S as its lower-end battery representative, the team modelled normal driving patterns based on a large driving behaviour study in Germany. “Typically, people are driving out during the daytime and come home to charge during the nighttime,” Wu explained, adding that there could be fast charging taking place at about noon in public charging stations. The team also modelled battery thermal management systems that can actively heat or cool battery cells. Using a battery degradation model validated with real-world data, the team compared old batteries – those on the market between 2010 and 2018 – with new batteries on the market between 2019 and 2023. Based on historical climate patterns, the median battery lifetime of old to new batteries went from roughly 15 to 17 years, they found. Battery technology advances were able to offset the impacts of future warming even at 4 degrees Celsius of warming. At this rate, the median lifetime for old batteries shortened to 12 years, while for new batteries it remained at 17 years. The team found regional inequity in impacts, as batteries in hotter climates already experienced greater reductions in lifetime. However, the impacts of climate change-induced warming in these regions could be mitigated by new battery technology. Wu noted that the team’s proposed framework bridged the gap between climate data and real-world engineering practices – an integration often missing from current climate projections. He said the research community should focus on more similar integrated methodological contributions that better reflected daily life.

Does climate change accelerate EV battery ageing? Not so fast, researchers say

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Major advancements in electric battery technologies mitigate impact of future warming, study finds

Major advancements in electric battery technologies mitigate impact of future warming, study finds