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ExclusiveAsia’s top climate scientist warns of ‘humanitarian disasters’ as Earth teeters

Hong Kong-based expert paints grim picture of challenges, yet voices hope in next generation and nature’s resilience

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A satellite image shows Super Typhoon Bavi as it churns in the Pacific Ocean towards Taiwan on Thursday. Photo: Handout via Reuters
Holly Chik
As Super Typhoon Bavi churns towards Taiwan and eastern mainland China, they offer a chilling timely reminder that the world needs to brace for impending disasters as the climate system nears a tipping point.

For Benjamin Horton, the newly minted recipient of the Asia Oceania Geosciences Society Axford Medal – the most prestigious honour in Asian climate and earth science – the world has entered a period of volatility in which historical weather patterns are no longer a reliable guide to future risk.

“Look at what is happening to the planet. It is spiralling out of control. Climate is accelerating far faster than we thought it would,” said Horton, dean of the school of energy and environment at City University of Hong Kong.

“The Earth is incredibly sensitive,” he added. “It has a planetary boundary, and we are right at the edge of it. That means that the system is prone to extremes, which we find very hard to predict exactly where and when.”

The concept of planetary boundaries defines the environmental limits within which humanity can safely operate. According to the Stockholm Resilience Centre, humanity has already crossed seven of these nine critical limits, including those relating to climate change, land use and fresh water.

Typhoons like Bavi that undergo rapid intensification pose severe forecasting challenges. Within just a day or two, a relatively modest threat can escalate into a major hazard as maximum sustained winds surge abruptly, often fuelled by exceptionally warm ocean waters and favourable atmospheric conditions.

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