Why Star Wars: The Force Awakens may fail to be a blockbuster hit in China

The one place where Star Wars: The Force Awakens won’t break records is the world’s second-largest movie market, China, and without a big performance there the Walt Disney film will struggle to overtake Avatar as the top- grossing picture of all time.

The Force Awakens, set to open on Saturday on the mainland, could gross as much as 1.5 billion yuan (HK$1.8 billion) through its full run in mainland cinemas, according to Nomura Holdings. Furious 7 holds the local record of US$391.2 million set in April.

READ MORE: Chinese interest in Star Wars dwarfed by buzz in Japan and Korea ahead of premiere

The “Star Wars” franchise, one of Hollywood’s most valuable movie properties, is not as well known in China. That presents a marketing challenge for Disney, which paid US$4 billion in 2012 for the series creator and plans to make four more “Star Wars” pictures.

China, where ticket sales grew 48 per cent to US$6.75 billion last year, is set to become the biggest movie market in the world as soon as 2017.

“I’m sceptical it’ll hit with many new fans, given the film’s nostalgic tone and the comparatively muted reaction elsewhere in much of Asia,” said Jonathan Papish, an analyst at BoxOffice.com, which predicts US$150 million to US$200 million takings in China.

Watch: Star Wars returns to the big screen with Force Awakens