China fears trade conflicts, climate change could pose threat to food security
- Last month the country’s leadership produced its first report on the issue in 23 years as the trade war with the US and other issues prompted a fresh look at how it can continue to feed its population
- While the situation is “very sound” at present, policymakers are looking for ways to counter a series of environmental and political risks
Global trade conflicts and the increasing trend towards unilateral trade agreements have raised alarm bells in Beijing about how China can continue to feed its 1.4 billion people.
Last month the State Council, the country’s cabinet, published a policy paper on food security – the first in 23 years. It said that while the current food supply situation was “very sound” it also flagged concerns about potential disruptions due to trade friction with the US. Climate change is another worry for future food production.
China’s devastating experiences with hunger and famine mean that the prospect of food shortages touches a raw nerve.
“In the medium to long term, China’s grain production and demand will remain closely aligned, which means China must not slacken its efforts to ensure food security,” the paper said, adding that the “international food trade is being disrupted by protectionism and unilateralism and showing increasing instability.”
Analysts say the “instability” word is the one that causes consternation in Beijing, but it is not just a concern in China.
The worst outcome is that trade wars will raise uncertainty and delay investment, including in new farming technologies, said David Laborde, a senior research fellow with the International Food Policy Research Institute.
He said the economic and demographic pressures that would result from climate change meant the world needed more technological innovation, but if trade conflicts undermined research and investment, then the world could face food shortages and higher prices in 10 or 20 years’ time.