China coronavirus: patients are infecting two or three other people, research estimates
- Transmission rates are considered a moving target because of gaps in information, and the number can change quickly based on quarantines and public awareness
- ‘Whether transmission continues at the same rate critically depends on the effectiveness of the intense control effort now underway in Wuhan and across China’
Those infected with the Wuhan coronavirus are passing it on to two to three people on average, but that number could change quickly depending on factors including the success of China’s efforts to contain the outbreak through quarantines and increased public awareness.
This was the consensus found in separate scientific analyses released in recent days.
The researchers offered slightly different views on the transmission rate, however, and stressed that the figure was a moving target and that there were large gaps in information needed to come up with a definitive number.
Among the unknowns is the so-called zoonotic rate: the number of people infected through contact with an animal.
One study led by British infectious disease specialist Neil Ferguson put the basic reproduction number, known as the R0 (R naught), for the virus at 2.6.