appConfigEntityId

bodyType

customContents

entityId

entityUuid

articlePageQuery

filter

article

articleBaseAdvertisingInfoArticle

articleListArticle

articleSeoArticle

hooksArticleAcknowledgementGateOverlayArticle

hooksTrackPageViewArticle

hooksContentInterestArticle

articleLinkingDataContent

hooksAmpRedirectArticle

articleSchemaContent

hooksArticlePageAdvertisementConfigArticle

liveArticle

appConfig

advertZone

sentiment

contentLock

topics

types

sections

paywallTypes

createdDate

publishedDate

sponsorType

urlAlias

moreOnThisArticles

sectionsV2

commentCount

authorLocations

authors

corrections

displaySlideShow

multimediaEmbed

printHeadline

seriesContainer

articleSpeeches

socialHeadline

headline

images

flag

firstTopic

glossary

flattenTypeIds

image

relatedLinks

relatedNewsletters

__typename

sponsor

pdfFiles

seriesReverseOrder

series

disableOffPlatformContent

published

updatedDate

summary

subHeadline

body

keywords

readingTime

customTimezone

liveContents

json

Bhavan Jaipragas

The World Health Organisation on Thursday cautioned against reading too much into data showing a dip in daily new coronavirus infections in China after the figure had surged for weeks.
Michael Ryan, the head of the WHO’s health emergencies programme, said it was “too early to make predictions” on whether the outbreak had peaked, based on just one data point.
“We are still in the middle of an intense outbreak and we need to be very careful about making any predictions,” Ryan told a daily briefing on the outbreak at the world body’s headquarters in Geneva.
Chinese health authorities on Wednesday reported 3,694 confirmed cases, a drop from the 3,887 new cases it had reported a day earlier.


Ryan confirmed that this was the first day in which overall confirmed cases in China had dropped.
“There is a constant increase in cases in Hubei but we haven’t seen an acceleration in provinces outside of Hubei,” Ryan said. The central Chinese province of Hubei, and its capital Wuhan, are the epicentre of the public health crisis that has engulfed the world in recent weeks.
Similarly, there has been no acceleration in the number of new infections in Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan, Ryan said. “Again, I think we are seeing a relatively stable situation outside Hubei,” he said. But this state of affairs may not last as there are “cycles of transmission”, meaning a spike in the rate of new infections could occur in the days to come, he cautioned.
“Nearly 3,700 cases confirmed in a day is nothing to celebrate, certainly right now,” Ryan said.
More than 28,000 people – mostly in China – have been infected by the virus, and all but two of the 567 deaths attributed to the disease so far have occurred in the Chinese mainland.

On social media, some epidemiological observers shared Ryan’s cautious view, noting that while the daily new infections figure for China may have dropped in one day, the number of confirmed cases showed a rapid rise on a cumulative basis.
On Monday, the total crossed 20,000. By Wednesday, the figure was at 28,403.
Hospital denies Li Wenliang, doctor who alerted public to coronavirus, has died
Neil Ferguson, the British epidemiologist known for developing mathematical models that track the spread of new viruses, said his estimates suggest that as many as 50,000 new infections a day may be occurring in China – far more than the official number.
In a video posted on social media on Wednesday, the Imperial College professor says the epidemic in China may be doubling in size every five days, based on his current projections.


“It is hard to evaluate how effective controls are, but there is limited evidence of the [outbreak] slowing in China,” he said.
“Under that scenario, the epidemic would probably follow its natural cause, probably peak at its epicentre in Wuhan in around a month’s time,” he said. “There’s some uncertainty around that, and then, maybe a month or two later in the whole of China.”
Taiwan halts visas from Hong Kong, Macau as global coronavirus deaths hit 565
Epidemics likely would occur in the rest of the world at various times after this period, Ferguson said, depending on countries’ connections in the preceding weeks to places where the virus had been prevalent.
It was hard to evaluate the control measures countries have put into place because “community transmissions” may be ongoing, he said. He was referring to the virus spreading within a particular community or country without additional new infections being carried in from outside.

Purchase the China AI Report 2020 brought to you by SCMP Research and enjoy a 20% discount (original price US$400). This 60-page all new intelligence report gives you first-hand insights and analysis into the latest industry developments and intelligence about China AI. Get exclusive access to our webinars for continuous learning, and interact with China AI executives in live Q&A. Offer valid until 31 March 2020.



Italy extradites Chinese national wanted by US for alleged hacking

Scientists test universal vaccine for cold, flu, Covid and allergies

How Thailand’s Gentlewoman became Asia’s hottest fashion brand

How Remo Ruffini made Moncler a luxury powerhouse, from Grenoble to the Winter Olympics

Coronavirus pandemic: All stories

Coronavirus: World Health Organisation plays down dip in daily infection rate, saying it might not mean outbreak has peaked

Hongkongers line up to buy face masks. Chinese health authorities on Wednesday reported 3,694 confirmed cases of the coronavirus, down from 3,887 a day earlier. Photo: AFP

Michael Ryan, Executive Director of WHO's Health Emergencies program, talks during a press conference at the World Health Organization headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland, Wednesday, February 5, 2020. WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus urged countries outside China to share more data on infections, saying detailed information has been provided in only 38% of cases. (Salvatore Di Nolfi/Keystone via AP)

Coronavirus: Whistle-blower Dr Li Wenliang confirmed dead of the disease at 34, after hours of chaotic messaging from hospital

Li Wenliang died in the early hours of Friday morning. Photo: CNN

Police reprimand letter. Photo: Weibo/Li Wenliang

Taiwan halts visas for Hong Kong and Macau citizens as coronavirus deaths reach 565 globally

Medical staff at work in a makeshift hospital that was converted from an exhibition centre, in Wuhan, central China. Photo: Xinhua

Coronavirus: China predicts fall in mortality rate as mainland deaths hit 425

The death toll in China from the coronavirus has risen to 425 as efforts continue to control the outbreak. Photo: Xinhua

Coronavirus: WHO chief again deflects criticism of China and seeks US$675 million in aid for developing nations

A woman in a Hong Kong MTR station on Wednesday. Photo: AFP

Coronavirus tests China’s ambitions as a global health leader

Medical staff unload supplies at Wuhan, where the coronavirus originated. Photo: EPA-EFE

epa08179988 Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Director General of the World Health Organization (WHO), talks to the media after the WHO's Emergency Committee meeting on the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), during a press conference, at the World Health Organization (WHO) headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland, 30 January 2020. The WHO has declared an global public health emergency over the outbreak of the Coronavirus. EPA-EFE/JEAN-CHRISTOPHE BOTT

News

China

People & Culture

World

Asia


‘Too early to predict’ whether the outbreak is peaking, based on just one data point, says the head of the WHO’s health emergencies programme
‘We are still in the middle of an intense outbreak and we need to be very careful about making any predictions,’ Michael Ryan says



It is ‘too early to predict’ whether the outbreak is peaking, based on just one data point, says Michael Ryan, head of health emergencies programme. ‘We are still in the middle of an intense outbreak and we need to be very careful about making any predictions.’
