Advertisement
Advertisement
Coronavirus pandemic
Get more with myNEWS
A personalised news feed of stories that matter to you
Learn more
Medical workers treat patients in an isolated intensive care unit at a hospital in Wuhan. Photo: Chinatopix via AP

Hopes of coronavirus peak ahead as outbreak on brink of surpassing Sars’ grim death toll

  • The number of fatalities continues to rise but signs of stabilisation in new cases at the epicentre
  • Dramatic reduction in rate of infection could come later this month, epidemiologist says
Health experts have expressed hope that the number of new coronavirus cases will peak in the coming weeks despite uncertainty over its transmissions and as the death toll from the disease is set to surpass that of Sars.

The hopeful assessment came as China reported a record 89 deaths on Saturday – up from 86 on Friday – taking the country’s total fatalities to 811. With two deaths already outside China, the global death toll was 813, matching the number attributed by the World Health Organisation to the deadly severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars) epidemic of 2002-03.

At the same time, the number of newly confirmed coronavirus cases in mainland China rose by 2,656 on Saturday, down from 3,385 new cases on Friday, according to China’s National Health Commission. So far, the mainland has confirmed 37,198 cases of the new coronavirus, well above the 8,437 worldwide infections attributed to Sars.

Beyond the epicentre of Hubei province, there were signs of a slowdown in the illness’s spread on the mainland, with new infections dropping from 890 on Monday to 509 on Saturday, according to the commission.

Most of the deaths and newly confirmed cases remained in Hubei province, where 81 fatalities and 2,147 newly confirmed cases were reported on Saturday – down from 3,399 cases reported on Friday – according to the provincial health authority. That took the province’s total fatalities from the outbreak to 780 and total cases to 27,100 as of Saturday.

Mike Ryan, the WHO’s emergency chief, said the number of new cases reported from Hubei province had stabilised over the past four days.

“That’s good news, and may reflect the impact of the control measures put in place. But remember there are also lots of suspected cases still to be tested,” Ryan said.

“It’s not a decline. That can just mean four days of relative calm before it accelerates.”

One epidemiologist said that if successful containment measures were taken, “dramatic reductions” in the rate of infection could arrive around the “third or fourth week of February”.

China orders more medical supplies as coronavirus deaths equal Sars total

“If we have an early spring, this should make a dramatic difference in the rate of acquisition of new infections. So the dates to think about are the end of February and whenever the temperature begins to climb,” Columbia University professor of epidemiology Ian Lipkin said.

But Lipkin warned that there might also be a “bump” in infections when people returned to work this week.

Adam Kucharski, an associate professor of infectious disease epidemiology at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told Bloomberg that the peak of the infections in Wuhan would likely occur in “mid-to-late February”, with a possible peak prevalence of “over 5 per cent” of Wuhan’s 11 million population.

Hubei’s Communist Party chief, Jiang Chaoliang, meanwhile, called on officials to complete testing of all suspected cases in Wuhan “in two days” to clear a backlog so that resources could be focused on treating confirmed cases, the official Hubei Daily reported on Sunday.

And in Beijing, Feng Luzhao, from the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, sought to dispel fears that aerosol transmission – the mixing of the virus with droplets in the air to form aerosols – was a way of contracting the illness.

‘Clear backlog of coronavirus tests’ to help focus on confirmed cases

“At present, the main methods of transmission are by droplets and through contact … There is no evidence that the coronavirus can spread through aerosol transmission,” Feng said.

Authorities are also keen to contain public discontent over the death last week of doctor Li Wenliang, one of eight people who alerted others about the outbreak before the authorities officially acknowledged the risk of human transmission of the disease. The death of the 34-year-old eye doctor has alarmed the top leadership, which directed the National Supervisory Commission to send a team to Wuhan to investigate his death.

Chinese officials are on alert for new cases this week as millions of workers return to work after the extended Lunar New year holiday. The mass movement of the Chinese workforce on trains, ferries and planes has sparked fears that it would seriously undermine efforts to contain the coronavirus’s spread.

More than 20 provinces across China delayed the first working day after the holiday until Monday, while in Hubei province this has been postponed to Friday. The new term for schools and universities has been postponed until further notice.

Strict quarantine measures and transport lockdowns around the country to contain the spread have brought China’s industry to a virtual standstill.

The central government on Sunday asked some manufacturers closed during the coronavirus outbreak to reopen to ensure essential supplies, even in the worst-hit regions.

Not just China: travellers avoiding Singapore, Japan amid virus outbreak

“There can no longer be a sweeping approach to shut everything down,” Wang Bin, from the Ministry of Commerce, said.

Beijing mayor Chen Jining also urged companies to “resume stable work as soon as possible,” while the Shanghai municipal government encouraged migrant workers to postpone their return and work remotely if possible.

The southern manufacturing hub of Shenzhen also released emergency funding for struggling local businesses and permitted companies to introduce flexible working arrangements.

The central government will also boost the purchase and manufacturing of medical equipment and drugs to address shortages, the National Development and Reform Commission said. These supplies included medical overalls, masks, eye shields, testing kits, infrared thermometers and related drugs, it said.

The second of Wuhan’s temporary hospitals, Leishenshan, took in its first group of coronavirus patients on Saturday night, state news agency Xinhua reported.

The 1,500-bed hospital, along with its counterpart Huoshenshan which opened on February 3, is designed to relieve some of the pressure on Wuhan’s overstretched medical system.

Around 11 makeshift medical shelters are also being set up in Wuhan, estimated to provide more than 10,000 hospital beds, to treat patients with mild to average symptoms. Many were hastily converted from schools, gyms and conference buildings.

Additional reporting by Liu Zhen and Jodi Klein

Purchase the China AI Report 2020 brought to you by SCMP Research and enjoy a 20% discount (original price US$400). This 60-page all new intelligence report gives you first-hand insights and analysis into the latest industry developments and intelligence about China AI. Get exclusive access to our webinars for continuous learning, and interact with China AI executives in live Q&A. Offer valid until 31 March 2020.
This article appeared in the South China Morning Post print edition as: New cases may peak in coming weeks, experts say
Post