WHO urges caution as omnibus coronavirus study shows decline in China cases

More than 70,000 confirmed or suspected infections analysed by Chinese scientists in broadest study to date into spread of virus

World Health Organisation chief says it is ‘too early’ to draw conclusions

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Workers in protective suits test coronavirus specimens inside a laboratory at a centre for disease control and prevention in China. Photo: Reuters

Published: 11:02am, 18 Feb 2020Updated: 11:34pm, 18 Feb 2020

Chinese health authorities have released an omnibus study of more than 70,000 confirmed or suspected coronavirus cases that suggests the epidemic was in decline by last week, but the scientific paper’s authors cautioned that infections could spike after people return to work following the extended Lunar New Year holiday.

The paper, published on Monday in a weekly volume by the China Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CCDC), includes all the cases mandatorily recorded in the mainland’s Infectious Diseases Information System until February 11 – making it the broadest study yet of the disease now known as Covid-19.

The World Health Organisation’s director general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus on Monday said he remained cautious, despite the positive findings of the paper.

“This trend must be interpreted very cautiously. Trends can change as new populations are affected,” Tedros told journalists during a daily briefing. “It’s too early to tell if this reported decline will continue. Every scenario is still on the table.”

Most of the more than 73,000 Covid-19 infections and 1,873 deaths recorded worldwide have occurred in China. The central Chinese province of Hubei and its capital, Wuhan, have borne the brunt of the epidemic.