Coronavirus: social distancing could save millions of lives, study says
- Researchers from Imperial College in London say that without steps such as social distancing Covid-19 could have killed 40 million people this year
- Study warns governments will have to make ‘challenging decisions’ but limiting social contacts could halve the death toll
The researchers’ model indicated that if no social distancing measures were taken at all, the disease could kill as many as 40 million people worldwide but this could be halved if people cut their social meetings by 40 per cent and the elderly reduced their interactions by 60 per cent.
They also said that more aggressive measures could reduce the toll further and warned that “all governments” will have to face “challenging decisions” in the coming weeks and months about when and how aggressively they should impose social distancing, and how long they could afford these measures.
They calculated that if even more intensive, wide-scale social distancing was implemented early and sustained – by cutting 75 per cent of interpersonal contact rates – it could save 38.7 million lives.
In their study which was published last Friday, they included a number of scenarios, such as what would have happened if the world had not taken action to contain the new coronavirus, which has now infected more than 700,000 people and caused over 34,000 deaths.