Covid-19 could be under control by end of April, China’s top respiratory expert says

But it remains to be seen if the coronavirus that causes it will return next spring, says Zhong Nanshan, who heads a team that advises the government on the pandemic

As countries around the world battle their own health crises, one of the best things they can do is make people stay at home, he says

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Chinese expert Zhong Nanshan says he is confident the coronavirus’ activity will diminish in higher temperatures. Photo: Handout

Published: 8:18pm, 2 Apr 2020Updated: 12:00am, 3 Apr 2020

The Covid-19 pandemic could be under control by the end of the month, but uncertainty remains as to whether there will be another coronavirus outbreak next spring, China’s leading respiratory disease expert said.

“With every country taking aggressive and effective measures, I believe the pandemic can be brought under control. My estimate is around late April,” Zhong Nanshan, who heads a Chinese team of top experts that advises the government on managing the outbreak, said in an interview with Shenzhen Television broadcast late on Wednesday.

“After late April, no one can say for sure if there will be another virus outbreak next spring or if it will disappear with warmer weather … though the virus’ activity will certainly diminish in higher temperatures,” he said.

Zhong did not say how he reached his forecast but other experts have suggested a similar time frame based on the latest developments in the United States and Europe, which are the current epicentres of the health crisis.

Mike Ryan, director of the World Health Organisation’s health emergencies programme, said this week that there were signs of the outbreak stabilising in Europe as the lockdowns imposed last month started to bear fruit.

In the US, the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington said that hospitals were likely to face the peak of Covid-19 patients around April 20.

Of the almost 1 million infections now confirmed around the world, more than 215,000 are in the United States, according to the latest figures from Johns Hopkins University.

The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control said there had been more than 421,000 across the European Union and Britain, with Italy and Spain combined accounting for almost half the total.

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Covid-19 could be under control by end of April, China’s top respiratory expert says

But it remains to be seen if the coronavirus that causes it will return next spring, says Zhong Nanshan, who heads a team that advises the government on the pandemic As countries around the world battle their own health crises, one of the best things they can do is make people stay at home, he says