Coronavirus re-emergence will be a threat until 2024, Harvard study finds
- Social distancing may need to continue or be used intermittently for next two years even if the virus were seemingly eliminated, researchers say
- Donald Trump suggested on Tuesday that distancing in the US could be eased this month, while China has loosened its measures
The findings contrasted with Tuesday’s upbeat forecast by US President Donald Trump that some US states would be able to lift social distancing measures by the end of April.
The paper – by five researchers with the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, and published in the journal Science on Tuesday – found that a re-emergence of the virus was possible in the next four years.
It did not say social distancing measures would need to stay in place for the entire next two years, but suggested that “prolonged or intermittent distancing may be necessary into 2022” unless a vaccine or improved treatment was available, or critical care capacity – which has been widely overwhelmed – was increased substantially.
“Even in the event of apparent elimination, Sars-CoV-2 surveillance should be maintained since a resurgence in contagion could be possible as late as 2024,” it said, referring to the virus’ official name.
Countries around the world have introduced social distancing measures such as restrictions on gatherings, school closures and reductions in non-essential outdoor activities, in efforts to stem the spread of the coronavirus, despite having social and economic consequences.