Coronavirus could infect 44 million in Africa if containment fails, World Health Organisation says

As some countries ease lockdown measures, new modelling highlights risk of potential crisis facing the continent

Hospitals could be overwhelmed if spread of Covid-19 is not kept under control, UN health agency says

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The WHO has called for caution as African countries begin to ease lockdown measures. Photo: AP

Published: 5:33pm, 8 May 2020Updated: 11:09pm, 8 May 2020

As many as 44 million people in Africa could be infected with Covid-19 in the first year of the pandemic if containment measures fail – causing 83,000 to 190,000 deaths – according to modelling by the World Health Organisation, reflecting fears of a potential widening crisis on the continent.

The study, released on Thursday by WHO Africa, looked at 47 countries with a combined population of 1 billion people and suggested smaller countries alongside Algeria, South Africa and Cameroon were at a high risk if containment measures were not prioritised.

So far Africa has not been as hard hit as other regions but its vulnerable health care systems and economies – as well as other ongoing health emergencies in some countries – have alarmed health officials. A March study by the WHO estimated an average of just nine intensive care unit beds per million people.

WHO regional director for Africa Matshidiso Moeti said nearly 1,000 African health workers had been infected with Covid-19.

“We know that most African countries already have catastrophic shortages of health workers,” she said.

The WHO’s regional director for Africa Matshidiso Moeti says many countries have a “catastrophic shortage” of health workers. Photo: Reuters