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SCMP Reporters

China is the world’s most populous country, home to more than 18 per cent of the people on the planet.
But while its economy has expanded rapidly in recent decades, its population – estimated to be about 1.4 billion – has been greying.
By various estimates, China’s population could peak at around 2027-2029 then start to shrink, presenting serious challenges for the country’s health system and pension funds.
Where do most Chinese people live?
Most Chinese people live in the central, eastern and southern coastal areas, which have been among the fastest growing economies in the country.
The autonomous regions of Xinjiang and Tibet in the far west and Inner Mongolia in the north are among those areas with the smallest populations.
Chongqing, in China’s southwest, is the country’s biggest city, with more than 34 million people by the end of 2018.
Nearby, Chengdu, the capital of southwest Sichuan province, is home to 14.7 million people.


Other heavily populated regions are more economically advanced parts of the country.
The southern province of Guangdong, China’s manufacturing hub and the first region to embrace market reforms in the 1970s, is the country’s most populous province. Other major population centres include Jiangsu province and neighbouring Shanghai.


Will China’s population shrink?
Researchers from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences forecast last year that China’s population would peak at 1.44 billion in the late 2020s then start shrinking from 2030.
Around the same time, India is expected to surpass China as the world’s most populous country.
How is this happening?
In the 1990s, China’s fertility rate fell below the level that a country needs to maintain its population, which is generally about 2.1 children for every woman of reproductive age.
The fertility rate was 6.1 in the 1950s and fell to 3 in the 1970s as China began to control population growth with measures such as the “one-child policy”, which restricted most couples to one offspring.
The fall continued as the country made the shift in the 1980s to a more urban society.


As birth rates fall, Chinese society is ageing rapidly.
In the early 2000s, 7 per cent of the population was at least 65, making China an ageing society, according to the World Health Organisation’s definition.
When more than 14 per cent of the total population is over 65, it qualifies as an aged society, a benchmark China is expected to reach by 2022, according to Chinese research firm Evergrande Research Institute.
If that forecast is accurate, China will have transformed into an aged society in just 21 years.
Japan took 24 years to make the same transition, while Germany took 40, Britain 46 and France 126.
What are the economic implications?
In an ageing society, a smaller labour force must support a bigger population of retirees, which could strain China’s retirement fund and slow the country’s innovation and economic growth.
In a 2019 report, the United Nations said governments could mitigate these effects by promoting employment among women, gradually increasing the retirement age and supporting a work-life balance to allow people more time to build a family.


How has population policy changed?
For most of Chinese history, people were encouraged to get married young and have more children.
It was not just a way of paying respect to elders but also provided labour for a largely agricultural society.
After coming to power, the Communist Party continued to promote growth in the 1950s and 1960s, offering financial incentives for families with more children.
In the 1970s, the party started looking into population control as part of the plan to better allocate scarce resources and accelerate China’s economy. This evolved into the “one-child policy”.
There were exceptions to the rule. Rural families with a firstborn daughter were allowed to have a second child once the first child turned four.
In 2015, China introduced the “two-child policy” allowing couples to have two children but this has not led to an increase in births. After the easing policy, the annual population growth rate moved up from 0.5 per cent to 0.54 per cent and 0.56 per cent for the next two years before falling to 0.36 per cent in 2019.
In 2018, China’s marriage rate fell to 7.2 per thousand, down from 9.9 per thousand in 2013.
How has China responded?
Chinese policymakers plan to delay retirement age and roll out incentives to promote marriage and childbearing. In May, the State Council, China’s cabinet, issued a directive that asks local government to find ways to make it easier for families to take care of children. Some suggestions include annual parental leave, extending maternity leave and setting up more child care facilities in communities.


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China economy

China’s population: the big picture of a greying society

By 2022, over 14 per cent of China’s population is expected to be at least 65. Photo: AFP

China’s ageing population prompts plan to deal with looming silver shock

Beijing has called for an active response to China’s looming demographic crisis, with one third of its population estimated to be over 60 by 2050. Photo: AFP

epa07959242 Chinese retirees practice Taichi in Taikang Yanyuan retirement community in Changping district, in the suburbs of northwest Beijing, China, 18 June 2019 (issued 30 October 2019). A rapidly aging population in China, where one in three of its 1.4 billion people will be over the age of 60 by 2050, has resulted in its affluent elderly elites looking to retire in luxury at high-end retirement homes. Taikang Yanyuan is a one such community catering to China's wealthiest senior citizens. Run by Taikang Life Insurance Co., the complex comprises of an on-site hospital, clubhouse decorated with artworks by Israeli artist David Gerstein, resort-like facilities with swimming pools and gyms, professional on-call staff and buffet or catered dining. Residents spend their time playing mahjong and card games while attending a variety of singing, ballet, taichi, history and calligraphy lessons that are often taught by fellow residents, many of whom are top academics, professionals, artists,

China’s ageing population problem worsens as birth and marriage rates fall

China is facing huge challenges with its new births in decline and a quarter of the population expected to be aged over 60 by 2030. Photo: AFP

(180422) -- HANGZHOU, April 22, 2018 (Xinhua) -- Newly-weds attend a group wedding ceremony in Hangzhou, capital of east China's Zhejiang Province, April 21, 2018. These 108 couples, coming from different parts of China, live and work in Hangzhou. (Xinhua/Li Zhong) (ry)

This photograph taken on December 15, 2016, shows nurses massaging babies at an infant care centre in Yongquan, in Chongqing municipality, in southwest China. China had one million more births in 2016 than in 2015, following the end of the one-child policy at the end of 2015. / AFP PHOTO / STR

JPG for ONLINE

China’s ageing population is creating a new debt crisis for Beijing as pension shortfall widens

Pension contributions by workers in China no longer cover retiree benefits. In 2016, the government was left with a 429.1 billion yuan tab to cover the shortfall. Photo: Alamy

Elderly people rest along the beach in Sanya, Hainan province, on February 15, 2017. Blessed by palm-fringed beaches and balmy weather, the island province of Hainan is fast becoming known as "China's Florida," drawing masses of retirees fleeing the biting cold of their hometowns. / AFP PHOTO / STR / China OUT / TO GO WITH AFP STORY: China-social-pension-health, FEATURE by Julien Girault / "The erroneous mention[s] appearing in the metadata of this photo by STR has been modified in AFP systems in the following manner: [Sanya, China] instead of [Sanyang, Gambia]. Please immediately remove the erroneous mention[s] from all your online services and delete it (them) from your servers. If you have been authorized by AFP to distribute it (them) to third parties, please ensure that the same actions are carried out by them. Failure to promptly comply with these instructions will entail liability on your part for any continued or post notification usage. Therefore we thank you very much for all

How China is haunted by its one-child policy – young couples are reluctant to expand their families

Two-year-old Xiao Kaixi, an only child, learns to ride a bike in Wuhan, China. Years after the country abolished its one-child policy, many couples are reluctant to expand their families. Photo: Yan Cong / The Washington Post

Zhou Jing, 30, husband Xiao Yi, 29, and son Xiao Kaixi, 2, at home in Wuhan, China, on April 13, 2019. MUST CREDIT: Photo for The Washington Post by Yan Cong

Zhang Yuewei and her father, Zhang Dongyuan drive a bumper car in an amusement park in Wuhan, China, on April 14, 2019. MUST CREDIT: Photo for The Washington Post by Yan Cong

WUHAN, CHINA - APRIL 14, 2019: Zhang Dongyuan (L), 33, Zhang Yuewei, 3, and Zeng Yulin, 32, pose for a portrait in a park in Wuhan, China on April 14, 2019. (Photo by Yan Cong/For The Washington Post)

Mother Zhou Jing and two bike coaches doublecheck protection devices worn by Xiao Kaixi before his ride on April 13, 2019, in Wuhan, China. MUST CREDIT: Photo for The Washington Post by Yan Cong

Zeng Yulin, left, with husband Zhou Dongyuan and daughter Zhang Yuewei feed pigeons in a park in Wuhan, China, on April 14, 2019. MUST CREDIT: Photo for The Washington Post by Yan Cong

Zhou Jing, far left, attends a swimming class with son Xiao Kaixi, in front on the floating mat, on April 13, 2019, in Wuhan, China. MUST CREDIT: Photo for The Washington Post by Yan Cong

Two-year-old Xiao Kaixi, an only child, learns to ride a bike in Wuhan, China. Photo: Yan Cong / The Washington Post

From the one-child policy to online shopping: the catchphrases of 40 years of Chinese slogans

An environmental protection education banner proclaims: “We breathe the same air, have the same responsibility, and take the same action.” Photo: lfwmfw.gov.cn

Late 1990s: We only accept Melatonin if you want to send a gift. (Melatonin is a dietary supplement extremely popular among rural residents in China.) Photo: sohu.com

2000s: To hold your wife in your arms during sleep, Haier air conditioner would be your right choice. Photo: sohu.com

Recent years: Take targeted measures to alleviate poverty. Work as careful as doing embroidery. Photo: jxlz.gov.cn

since 2014: Every couple is encouraged to have two children. Having checkups before marriage and pregnancy is good for both the mother and baby. Photo: baijiahao.baidu.com

2010s: The road to fortune starts with a taobao shop. Photo: sina.com.cn

1980s: It’s good to have just one kid. Photo: baijiahao.baidu.com

Recent years: Give full devotion to poverty alleviation. No one can touch the cheese. (a metaphor for poverty alleviation fund) Photo: jxlz.gov.cn

1990s: Punish those who burn straws according to the law. Photo: sohu.com

1990s: If people in poverty-stricken, mountainous areas want to get rich, they must raise fewer kids and plant more trees. Photo: baijiahao.baidu.com

1980s: Those who get out of poverty are honored; Those who remain in poverty prove themselves incapable. Photo: sohu.com

2000s: Every household should attach importance to hygiene. Photo: jxnews.com.cn

1990s: It’s all the same to have a boy or a girl. Photo: myzaker.com

2000s: Poverty alleviation is not paying money. It’s not supporting lazy people. Photo: myzaker.com

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China

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It’s the biggest country in the world in terms of number of people but it is also shrinking and getting older as the fertility rate declines
These demographic changes present big challenges for government and the economy



It’s the biggest country in the world in terms of number of people but it is also shrinking and getting older as the fertility rate declines.


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