New thinking now is what doctors of 2040 would order
We need to leverage the strengths of an holistic approach as health care demands rise
Since its establishment in early 1990, the Hospital Authority has grown to become one of the most respected and efficient public health care systems in the world. Using the equivalent of just 2.5 per cent of Hong Kong's gross domestic product, we meet close to 90 per cent of inpatient needs.
In 2012/13, our services included 2.3 million accident and emergency attendances, 9.2 million specialist outpatient visits, and 5.9 million primary care visits.
Like many places in the world, Hong Kong's demographics are undergoing a significant change. By 2041, the population is expected to have grown by 1.3 million to 8.5 million. The consequences of these dramatic shifts will be felt in many areas of society, but particularly so in demand for health care.
In terms of general bed use, the requirement for those aged 65 and above is about nine times more than younger people. For those aged 85 and above, it is almost 20 times that of the under-65s.
Our model of care is clearly not sustainable if we are to handle long-term shifts in demand. We must introduce new thinking now as to how to continue providing high-quality care.
Current projections put our 2041/42 recurring financial resources at an estimated HK$169 billion - 3.8 times more than in 2013/14.