Occupy Central will not be 'Armageddon', security expert says

Security experts and risk assessment analysts have weighed in with their take on the possible impact of a mass civil disobedience protest in the heart of Hong Kong.

The Occupy Central protest, which has threatened to mobilise up to 10,000 people to block the streets of the business district, would not be "Armageddon", said one former police officer turned security specialist, a view that has been echoed by risk analysts at a number of the city's big finance firms.

"I don't see major strife. I don't see the PLA moving in," said Steve Vickers, CEO of political and corporate risk consultancy Steve Vickers and Associates.

"It's not the core movement, but splinter groups that could cause trouble," the former head of the police criminal intelligence bureau said.

Vickers last week released a threat assessment for the planned protest, outlining the possible scenarios that could take place. According to him, the most likely one is some disruption to business, but limited violence and nothing compared to the World Trade Organisation protests in 2005.

"Confrontational elements linked to Occupy Central could cause some disruption in Central, by blocking road access and MTR exits, so impairing business activity - at least until the police gain control," said Vickers.