Occupy Central organisers heading for a split after failed escalation?
Pan-democratic lawmakers come out against student-led escalation as dissent grows over the way forward for two-month-old movement
The key organising groups behind Occupy Central are edging further apart after pan-democratic lawmakers and Occupy's co-founders distanced themselves from a student-led escalation of the protests on Sunday.
For the first time since the protests began in late September, previously supportive lawmakers struck a note of dissent, with 23 of the 27 pan-democrats on the Legislative Council signing a joint statement urging student leaders not to escalate the campaign to avoid further injuries. They also condemned police "brutality".
The Occupy trio - who co-hosted the sit-in with leaders of the Federation of Students and Scholarism - have also faded from the limelight in recent days. None of the three - academics Benny Tai Yiu-ting and Dr Chan Kin-man, and the Reverend Chu Yiu-ming - were present for the attempt to blockade government headquarters on Sunday.
"Pan-democrats actually had no idea of the details of the operation," Civic Party lawmaker Ronny Tong Ka-wah said yesterday. "We only knew about the plan to besiege government headquarters via unofficial channels and media reports."
Lawmakers and the Occupy trio are said to have raised concerns at a meeting with students and other groups last week, warning that escalation was unwise with public support waning.
Sources close to Occupy revealed that the three had floated the idea of handing themselves in to police on Sunday to pre-empt the escalation. Others at the meeting persuaded them to stick to the original plan of handing themselves in this Friday.
While the lawmakers and Occupy leaders favour ending the occupation and building the campaign for democracy in the community, student leaders said on Sunday that only stepping up their actions would make the government address their demands. They also prefer to be arrested rather than surrender, which they see as a passive move.
Democratic Party lawmaker Albert Ho Chun-yan said students should "reflect deeply" on Sundays events, which saw arrests as well as injuries to both protesters and police officers moving in to prevent the blockade. Further escalation would be "meaningless and would only trigger more injuries".
Labour Party stalwart Lee Cheuk-yan, who was in Admiralty on Sunday to urge protesters to avoid violence, said the cost of escalation was too high.
"You could never beat police suppression no matter how you escalate the protest," said Lee, adding that he was saddened by the injuries and arrests. "It's time to figure out a strategy - other than escalation - to sustain the long-term fight."
While the movement had won support from young people, Lee warned that it risked losing backing in the community.
But Federation of Students secretary general Alex Chow Yong-kang brushed off talk of a split and said three of the lawmakers, including Lee, were in Admiralty on Sunday.
Meanwhile, Tong said both sit-in organisers and the government should take a step back to cool tension.
He urged the government to conduct a "holistic consultation" on democratic development. He suggested Beijing's model for the 2017 chief executive poll - in which a 1,200-strong committee dominated by Beijing loyalists would choose two or three candidates for a public vote - might be accepted if democratic elections were promised for Legco in 2020 and the top job in 2022.
Academics, meanwhile, said the escalation could backfire.
Professor Lau Siu-kai, vice-chairman of mainland think tank the Chinese Association of Hong Kong and Macau Studies, said the attempt to escalate showed that the movement was losing steam. He warned of an "authoritarian backlash" that would harm democratic development.
"The student movement in the United States in the 1960s led to the conservative backlash which culminated in the election of … Richard Nixon in 1968," he said. Nixon was known for his conservative domestic agenda.
"In the wake of the Occupy movement, Beijing realises it can't appease political opposition in Hong Kong with a moderate approach," added Lau, former head of Hong Kong's Central Policy Unit. "It will not be as tolerant as before of actions which challenge its authority."
Chinese University political scientist Dr Ma Ngok said taking the democracy movement into the community would be difficult given rising anti-Occupy sentiment in the past month.
