‘Foreign forces’ can be a double-edged sword in tackling Hong Kong protest crisis
- Unconventional style of US President Donald Trump could provide Beijing with an opportunity for dealing with unrest
- City’s future is playing out in the wider context of US-China relations
US President Donald Trump must be the most unconventional world leader China has had to deal with.
While claiming a “great” friendship with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, it was he who waged the massive trade war between the world’s two largest economies.
Then, when a phase-one truce was finally agreed upon, he forecast a signing ceremony between himself and Xi, adding he would also visit China even though Beijing has yet to extend a formal invitation to him.
Trump’s Twitter diplomacy is something extraordinary to China, a country that prefers to follow all necessary diplomatic protocols. But, somehow, Trump’s unconventional style could provide Beijing with an opportunity to make use of the double-edged sword of “foreign forces” when tackling the political crisis in Hong Kong.
The personal rapport between Trump and Xi, to a certain extent, is seen as the last “secret weapon” to ease bilateral tensions at some critical junctures.
The fact Chinese state media has never targeted Trump personally when criticising the US, including on Hong Kong matters, is telling enough. At the same time, Trump has also been quite measured in his comments on the city’s situation.
But Beijing has kept warning against “foreign interference” throughout seven months of anti-government protests triggered by the now-withdrawn extradition bill pushed by Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor.
President Xi Jinping recently issued a stern warning against any foreign interference in Hong Kong and Macau affairs while attending the 20th anniversary of the casino hub’s return to China. Xi further raised his “grave concerns” to Trump on the “negative words and deeds” of the US concerning Hong Kong, Taiwan, Xinjiang and Tibet in a phone call initiated by the White House.
How seriously Trump will take Xi’s personal message, or whether he will turn that into a bargaining chip to demand more from Beijing in the coming phase-two trade talks, is for everyone to wait and watch out for. But this complaint from Xi could also mean goodwill from the Chinese leader in the sense that he values Trump’s understanding and help.
Of course, even though he is president, not everything is under Trump’s full control in US politics. Especially now that he is facing his own battle against impeachment, he has no shortage of political enemies. Beijing knows too well it has to deal with both Trump and those American politicians who support the Hong Kong protesters.
But by the same token, neither can Hong Kong protesters rely on the US too much, simply because Trump and those politicians have different considerations and agendas.
After all, the US-China relationship extends well beyond trade, let alone Hong Kong issues. An example of that was US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s immediate exchange of views with Chinese Politburo member Yang Jiechi after Trump ordered the assassination of General Qassem Soleimani, Iran’s top military commander.
In his New Year Eve’s speech broadcast nationwide, Xi characterised Hong Kong’s crisis as “everybody’s concern”. What could that mean?
The first change came over the weekend with Beijing’s sudden announcement of a major reshuffle, replacing Wang Zhimin with Luo Huining, the tough former party chief of Shanxi province, as the new head of its liaison office in Hong Kong.
Externally, whether Beijing likes it or not, Hong Kong has become a new diplomatic topic, as in the case of the recent China-Japan and China-Korea talks. It will not be anything unusual if Trump raises the issue to Xi when the two leaders eventually meet.
Despite it being a diplomatic nuisance to Beijing, how the Hong Kong factor will play out in the bigger game of China-US relations depends on the wider national interests of each side, a common ground between the two leaders.
