Hong Kong guessing game: why is Beijing still silent on the chief executive race? And does Carrie Lam have its backing?
- Insider says electoral office had been preparing to announce nomination period early this month when ‘Beijing abruptly asked us to hold everything’
- Finance chief Paul Chan, lawmaker Regina Ip and ex-leader CY Leung among names that have surfaced as possible candidates while Carrie Lam has not indicated whether she will run
The sources said Beijing told the city’s government to delay these announcements even as it signalled to insiders it would prefer to see a contest rather than a one-person show on March 27, the designated election day.
In previous contests, candidates were known well in advance, with campaigning beginning as early as six months before the polls.
In the last race, the government also announced the nomination period at least seven weeks before it commenced, on December 23, 2016, for candidates to throw their hats into the ring from February 14 the following year while the poll was held on March 26.
But an insider at the Registration and Electoral Office told the Post last Friday that the date was not official until it was gazetted.
The insider added the office had been preparing to announce the nomination period and release the guidelines at a press conference early this month when “Beijing abruptly asked us to hold everything”.
The reduction in time for candidates to start preparing, finding supporters to run their teams and the actual campaigning was to ensure the city did not get caught up with any intra-camp rivalry, sources said.
Another mainland expert familiar with Hong Kong affairs said from the perspective of the central government, it would want to have competition in the chief executive election.
“But unhealthy competition marred by mudslinging would not be conducive to good governance after the election,” said the expert, who declined to be named.
Who will throw their hat into the ring in Hong Kong’s leadership race?
Beijing has given no hint on its preferred candidate so far. Its silence has sent the rumour mill into overdrive within political circles as speculation mounts on likely candidates.
At least two sources told the Post that a candidate who stood little chance of winning would be signalling his intent to contest this week. One of the sources said the person was believed to be Sin Kwok-lam, 64, a film producer and kung fu master who acquired recent fame for his online shows challenging the West for its supposed hypocrisy on Hong Kong affairs. He could not be reached for comment.
Other names that have surfaced as potential candidates include lawmaker and New People’s Party chairwoman Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee, Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po, former chief executive Leung Chun-ying and former World Health Organization (WHO) director general Margaret Chan Fung Fu-chun.
A veteran pro-establishment politician said the 66-year old financial secretary, who was first appointed to the post during Leung’s tenure, was a good choice to run against Lam if Beijing wanted a contest.
“Paul Chan is not as combative as Leung, whose fierce battle in the 2012 chief executive election against perceived front runner Henry Tang Ying-yen resulted in a serious rift within the pro-establishment camp,” the politician said.
The Financial Secretary’s office said on Friday it was not in a position to comment on “speculation and rumours”, saying only that Chan was working on preparations for the 2022-23 budget to be delivered on February 23, with public consultations proceeding as planned.
Under the electoral overhaul, the powerful Election Committee that decides on the chief executive race has a chief convenor to oversee the process and the person must be a state leader. As someone with that status Leung could also fill this role but the delay in the appointment suggested not all was settled in the race as yet, a source said.
Earlier, it postponed a forum it was hosting in which she would be a key speaker, citing the pandemic with no new date announced and without turning it into a virtual event either.
A well-connected business leader said Chan’s name was floated as a possible option by some pro-establishment figures who believed she stood a good chance because of her ties with some senior mainland figures.
The city’s next leader will be chosen on March 27 by the powerful 1,448-member Election Committee, which is packed with pro-Beijing loyalists.
The mainland expert attributed the uncertainty to the fact that Beijing was more cautious with the choice for the next leader after the electoral overhaul.
Ivan Choy Chi-keung, a political scientist at the Chinese University, said Beijing had remained silent because it did not want an early start of the race.
“Beijing wants to avoid a repeat of the split within the pro-establishment camp in the 2012 and 2017 chief executive elections,” he said.
So far, Beijing has not indicated that Lam has its blessings to seek re-election.
Top Beijing official in Hong Kong lays out 5 expectations for new lawmakers
A former official said if Lam decided to seek a second term, she would be in an advantageous position in a vastly compressed election cycle, given her status as the incumbent leader backed by the government machinery.
Lam, 64, has repeatedly brushed off election talk, declaring herself only focused on the work to be done before her term ends in June and how it could be continued after the next leader takes office in July, including a major government restructuring.
A government source said Lam’s administration was working to “get everything ready” by the end of March, so that the next chief executive could proceed with appointing top talent to lead the bureaus.
Despite her reticence, the signals from her in mapping out such plans were clear, according to one senior official: “Carrie Lam is obviously in election mode.”
Additional reporting by Olga Wong
