Hong Kong braces for 36% drop in Primary One enrolments over 6 years

According to latest projections released by Education Bureau, number of six-year-olds expected to start Primary One will decline from 49,600 this year to 31,500 in 2029

Primary school sector describes prediction as ‘very shocking’ and urges government to lower headcount threshold for operating single class

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Most of the pupils in 2029 will be born in 2023, when Hong Kong recorded only 33,200 newborns, the second-lowest number on record. Photo: Jelly Tse

Published: 11:55pm, 11 Apr 2024Updated: 12:52am, 12 Apr 2024

Hong Kong schools operating Primary One classes should brace for a 36 per cent drop in the number of enrolled students over six years, according to the latest prediction by education authorities that are even gloomier than the one made in 2023.

The primary school sector on Thursday described the latest prediction, down by 37 per cent over last year’s, as “very shocking” and urged the government to lower the headcount threshold for operating a single class from 23 to 20 pupils amid the shrinking student population to avoid further school closures.

According to the latest projections released by the Education Bureau on Thursday, the number of six-year-olds expected to start Primary One will drop from 49,600 this year to 31,500 in 2029, a 36 per cent decline.

The bureau last year expected 50,000 six-year-old children to enrol in Primary One in 2029.

Most of the pupils in 2029 will be born in 2023, when Hong Kong recorded only 33,200 newborns, the second-lowest number on record.

The bureau’s statistics showed that Yau Tsim Mong and Tsuen Wan would be hit the hardest as the number of children enrolling in Primary One in the two areas would shrink by 70 per cent in six years. About 2,000 pupils are projected to sign up for Primary One in Yau Tsim Mong this year, but the figure would drop sharply to only 600 in 2029.