Hotter, more extreme weather in Hong Kong’s climate change future, forecasters say
Milder summer and later typhoons expected for Hong Kong as La Nina given 50:50 chance in 2016
Hong Kong could be facing a relatively milder summer and late-season typhoons this year due to changing weather patterns, according to the Observatory.
The forecast is based on a 50 per cent chance that one of the strongest ever El Nino phenomena in years will be succeeded by a La Nina in the next couple of months, Observatory director Shun Chi-ming said yesterday.
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“The biggest impact from La Nina on Hong Kong is usually the timing of typhoons. In the past, La Nina have usually led to more typhoons towards the end of the year,” he said.
“There is still some uncertainty. Right now, according to computer forecasts, we’re seeing a 50:50 chance of El Nino transitioning to a La Nina,” Shun said.
An El Nino occurs when the warm water accumulated in the western Pacific shifts east with the weakening or reversal of westerly winds, causing the eastern Pacific to warm up. A La Nina brings the opposite effect.
Both events can have a complex impact on global weather and climate but do not always follow one another. Such a see-sawing in the weather patterns was last seen in 1997-98 and 1982-83.
The Observatory’s latest prediction puts the number of typhoons coming within 500km of the city this year at a normal range of four to seven, similar to last year’s, with the first expected to hit as early as June. Average to above-average rainfall of 2,500mm to 3,000mm is also in store.