Coronavirus: number of cases in Hong Kong could jump almost 2,000 per cent in next two weeks, scientist predicts
- City University researcher Dr Yuan Hsiang-yu makes dire warning as residents return from mainland after Lunar New Year holiday
- Model estimates that for every one infected person, nearly three people would contract a secondary infection
Hong Kong could see an almost 2,000 per cent increase in the number of confirmed cases of coronavirus over the next two weeks as people return to the city from mainland China after the Lunar New Year holiday.
The claim was made by Dr Yuan Hsiang-yu of City University, who called the start of February a “critical time for the government”.
As of Friday evening there were 12 confirmed cases in the city, and Yuan, who is a researcher in the university’s department of biomedical sciences, estimates that number could balloon by more than 200 over the next few weeks.
“The next two weeks will be a critical time for the government,” Yuan said. “Scientific estimates of potential cases could help with planning ahead for the manpower needed to track down patients and their contacts.”
The worst case scenario estimate assumes an incubation period of eight days and is a combined total of 56.7 imported cases and 165.5 “secondary infections” – people who were infected by those who contracted the virus in China – out of 300,000 travellers from China, said Yuan.
A more middle of the road estimate, which assumed an incubation period of five days and 200,000 arrivals from China, found imported cases would number 15.4, and those could potentially infect a further 45.1 people within two weeks.