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Coronavirus pandemic
Hong KongHealth & Environment

Coronavirus: Hongkongers aren’t rushing for vaccines, and that means herd immunity could be another 300 days away, experts say

  • Pre-pandemic normality could be restored when 70 per cent of the population – the expected threshold for herd immunity – is vaccinated
  • But there is also a chance social-distancing rules may be further relaxed when 30-50 per cent of the city’s population receives a shot, experts say

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Hong Kong might need another 300 days before achieving herd immunity against Covid-19. Photo: Nora Tam
Lilian Cheng
Hong Kong might need another 300 days before achieving herd immunity against Covid-19, government medical advisers and experts estimate, with the coronavirus vaccination rate remaining low.
But experts also said that looking at the experience overseas, there was a chance social-distancing rules could be further relaxed when 30 to 50 per cent of the city’s population had received a shot.
Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor got the ball rolling on vaccines a month ago, receiving her first jab. The city kicked off its mass vaccination campaign four days later, on February 26, but since then 403,000 people, or 5.4 per cent of the 7.5 million population and 6.2 per cent of Hongkongers aged 16 and above have had a first jab. Lam received her second dose on Monday, and shortly afterwards hit out at those spreading false information about vaccines.

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Revealing details about the government’s thinking to the Post in an exclusive interview, Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip Tak-kuen said only about 25,000 shots were taken each day in the city, which was equivalent to just half of the capacity available, so there was an urgent need to speed up the vaccination level. 

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One plan involves reducing the minimum age for vaccination to cover everyone aged above 16, although the timetable remains unclear. The city’s vaccination drive was expanded just last week to include all residents over 30, domestic helpers and students studying overseas, meaning 5.5 million people were now covered. 

And in a bid to boost the city’s drive towards achieving herd immunity, Lam also said on Tuesday her administration was open to forging mutual-recognition arrangements with other jurisdictions for visitors who had received two doses of vaccine. Other incentives included exempting jab recipients from certain travel restrictions and relaxing more social-distancing measures.

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Pre-pandemic normality could be restored when 70 per cent of the population – the expected threshold for herd immunity – had been vaccinated. While local officials have not set a timetable to achieve such immunity, they hope to get most people vaccinated by the end of the year.

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