Omicron: infections could hit 250,000 within 6 months if local cases rise and Hong Kong does not tighten social-distancing measures, study warns

But Chinese University study predicts that reducing social contact by 40 per cent could limit number to 12,500, with 700 severe cases

Dr Sean Yuan, one of the researchers involved, says city is at a ‘critical’ moment in the coming weeks and community transmission can be prevented if contact tracing is stepped up

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People queue up for Covid-19 testing in Victoria Park, Causeway Bay on Saturday. Photo: Felix Wong

Published: 11:14pm, 8 Jan 2022Updated: 2:36pm, 9 Jan 2022

Hong Kong is at a “critical moment” in its fight against the coronavirus and could see about 250,000 infections involving the Omicron variant within six months if there is a sharp jump in the number of local cases and social-distancing measures are not tightened, a study has revealed.

A medical professor involved in the study by Chinese University (CUHK) said Hong Kong could reduce the number of infections if more social-distancing measures were introduced.

Dr Sean Yuan, one of the researchers involved in the study. Photo: Edmond So

The findings, released on Saturday, also predicted that under a lack of social-distancing measures, the city’s emerging fifth wave of infections would result in more than 3 million cases and 170,000 severe ones within nine months.

Dr Sean Yuan Hsiang-Yu, assistant professor at the department of biomedical sciences at City University, said the city faced a “critical” moment in the coming weeks and there was still a chance of preventing a community transmission chain if contact tracing was stepped up.

However, if local cases increased exponentially, Yuan predicted the city would face two scenarios of either 250,000 infections and 15,000 severe cases, or 12,500 infections and 700 severe cases within four to six months.

If the government reduced social contact by 40 per cent, such as by closing schools or implementing measures to work from home, the number would be limited to 12,500 infections with 700 severe cases.

Researchers added that it was “unlikely” social mobility would be reduced enough to cause their final predicted scenario of about 1,100 infections and roughly 50 severe cases, where more drastic measures such as a ban on gatherings of not more than two people were in place.