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Gigi Choy

Nadia Lam

Kathleen Magramo

Ten measures proposed by University of Hong Kong experts:
– Divert all vaccination resources to people aged 65 or above, especially those in care homes
– Daily rapid antigen tests for those providing critical services, such as care home and hospital staff
– Supply rapid antigen tests to all residents for self-testing every other day for next one to two months
– Urgently consider feasibility of even more stringent social-distancing measures
– Assess testing capacity and consider whether confirmation by Department of Health’s laboratory is necessary; may even need to start counting positive rapid antigen tests in future
– Let people know in advance what they will be provided with during home isolation so they can be better prepared
– Consider leveraging private sector to alleviate strain on public hospital services, especially for non-Covid-19 needs
– Ensure at least 90 per cent of school-aged children are vaccinated
– Travellers should undergo isolation at home instead of at designated quarantine hotels; flight bans should be lifted as risk of local infection exceeds importation
– Rethink role of sewage surveillance and redeploy those resources if frequent self-testing is implemented
Hong Kong’s fifth wave of Covid-19 infections could peak by the end of next month, with daily case counts projected to hit 28,000 and related deaths expected to total 1,000 by June, even if the city maintains its current strict social-distancing rules, a team of experts has predicted.
The rapidly worsening outbreak had sparked concern in Beijing, and mainland Chinese officials would meet their Hong Kong counterparts to discuss the best way to help the city contain infections, the Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office said on Thursday night. A source said the meeting was due to be held on Saturday.


According to various scenarios modelled by public health experts at the University of Hong Kong, a return to the zero-Covid status quo would be possible only if lockdown-style measures were imposed on the entire city – similar to what they said occurred in Shanghai in early 2020 – for two to three months.
Professor Gabriel Leung, dean of the University of Hong Kong’s faculty of medicine, urged the government to distribute rapid antigen tests to residents so they could test themselves for the virus every other day for the coming one to two months and to consider the feasibility of a “lockdown”.
Clarifying what he meant by lockdown, Leung, who led the study, said: “What lockdown means is that we should implement more stringent measures … It could be achieved through administrative or legislative means … It could also be something voluntary.
“The most important thing is to curb transmission. We could follow what Shanghai did, which lowered the transmission rate by 85 per cent.”
Hong Kong confirms 1,161 Covid-19 cases and first deaths in roughly six months
Government health advisers on Thursday called for more drastic measures and changes to the city’s isolation policy as officials confirmed 986 new Covid-19 infections, with one more death recorded in the fifth wave of infections. Only one case was imported.
A medical source said the number of daily cases might not reflect the actual situation, as laboratories confirming test results had been overwhelmed. The official tally stands at 18,794 cases. About 800 preliminary-positive infections were also reported.




Health authorities also said an unvaccinated chronically ill 94-year-old woman with the Omicron variant died in the afternoon, the third fatality in the fifth wave. A total of 216 Covid-related deaths have been recorded since the pandemic began.
Three patients, including two who tested preliminary-positive, are critically ill while six others are in a serious condition.
“Most of the patients [in critical or serious condition] are unvaccinated, or have only received one dose of vaccine … so we urge people to get inoculated, and to also get the booster,” said Dr Larry Lee Lap-yip, a chief manager at the Hospital Authority.
The HKU researchers said it would be difficult to maintain the current social-distancing rules – the toughest the city has seen – for more than two to three weeks, but warned that easing them could lead to between 3,000 and 5,000 deaths, depending on the degree of relaxation.

Assuming the health care system was overburdened, the cumulative number of deaths could increase to nearly 7,000.
“Even if we maintain the strictest social-distancing measures currently implemented, the Rt would still not reach one – the turning point of the outbreak when the outbreak would subside on its own,” Leung said, referring to the reproductive rate of the virus, or the number of people an infected person could pass Covid-19 on to.
The HKU team, which looked at data on the Omicron variant, current vaccination rates and social-distancing rules to run its model, said implementing stringent lockdown-style measures – similar to what Shanghai had done – would limit the current outbreak to about 115 additional deaths by mid-June.
In early February 2020, Shanghai imposed “lockdown management” on 13,000 residential communities and compounds, including stricter controls on the movement of people and vehicles, compulsory mask-wearing and the closure of leisure and other non-essential services. The measures were gradually relaxed at the end of the month.
Only 1 in 10 Hong Kong parents willing to let children get Covid-19 shot
But lifting such a lockdown in Hong Kong before zero infections had been achieved would cause the epidemic to resurge. Population immunity at that point would only be around 20 per cent higher than before the lockdown, the team said.
Leung said it was essential to prevent cross-infection by reducing mobility and mixing.
“You need to sustain that for as long as you need to bring the number of seeds, infected seeds, or transmission chains in the community down to such a level that they will just fade away naturally as opposed to going into a recrudescence and growing again, and essentially merely delaying the inevitable instead of just extinguishing those seeds,” he said.


Asked whether boosting the first-dose inoculation rate to 90 per cent – a target Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor has set as a condition to re-evaluate the current measures – would help contain the virus, Leung said their model was “not sensitive” to new vaccinations because “just one jab doesn’t really help”.
“Even with two jabs, it’s very difficult to stop the spread of infection of Omicron. What it does do, however, is it brings down your bad outcomes and deaths,” he said. “It will have a dramatic difference in terms of the number of deaths if you get jabbed early enough before you get infected.”
Leung said large-scale mandatory screening after positive sewage samples were detected had “completely overwhelmed” testing capacity. If residents were tested regularly, then resources deployed for sewage surveillance could be reallocated, he said.
At Thursday’s regular Covid-19 press briefing, Dr Chuang Shuk-kwan of the Centre for Health Protection said 1,306 people in total were in isolation in 571 homes.
Chuang noted infections were detected at more than 20 care homes for the elderly across the city, involving residents, workers and cleaners.




She added that eight staff members of DB Plaza were confirmed as infected, and authorities had asked the Discovery Bay shopping centre to close for disinfection to prevent further transmission.
Meanwhile, an outbreak also occurred at ward 12A of Caritas Medical Centre in Sham Shui Po, involving a staff member and five unvaccinated elderly patients in two cubicles.
After conducting a site visit on Thursday evening, microbiologist Professor Yuen Kwok-yung said an infected nursing instructor was likely to have transmitted the virus to the elderly patients.
“The instructor spent five hours in those two cubicles … if you are infected and constantly talking, you will release many viral particles in the air,” he said. “Short-distance airborne transmission can occur even if there are many air changes in the room.”
Stick with ‘dynamic zero-Covid’ policy or face disaster, Hong Kong told
Yuen revealed that another nurse, who had no contact with the instructor, had also tested positive. But the nurse had treated a patient who was later confirmed as infected and was only wearing a normal mask, not an N95 respirator.
Earlier on Thursday, Yuen called on authorities to introduce a policy of “reverse isolation” for vulnerable groups. For example, under such a policy, if cases were detected in a nursing home, the infected patients would be treated there, while the healthy residents would be quarantined at government facilities such as AsiaWorld-Expo.
“This will protect those who are not infected but are of higher risk, so they don’t mix with the infected,” Yuen told a radio programme.
To ease pressure on the health care system, he also suggested hospitals only admit patients with severe symptoms or underlying risk factors, while mild cases could isolate at home.


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Coronavirus Hong Kong

Coronavirus: experts predict Hong Kong’s fifth wave could peak at 28,000 cases a day, with 1,000 deaths by June, say ‘Shanghai-style lockdown’ should be considered

Local residents and workers queue up for Covid-19 testing at a mobile specimen collection station in Yuen Long.  Photo: Jelly Tse

Professor Gabriel Leung. Photo: Xiaomei Chen

Coronavirus Hong Kong: rail giant, utilities and telecoms bolster protective measures to ensure smooth operations amid surging fifth wave

A cleaner disinfects a turnstile at Mei Foo MTR station. Photo: Sam Tsang

All employees at HK Electric will need to have received at least one dose of the vaccine to enter the company premises. Photo: Fung Chang

Coronavirus Hong Kong: long queues for testing a moneymaking opportunity for some; city logs 986 new cases

Some online entrepreneurs are trying to turn long waits for Covid-19 tests into quick cash. Photo: Xiaomei Chen

An Instagram post showing a Carousell listing offering placeholding services for HK$100. Photo: Facebook

Elderly residents are evacuated from a nursing home after a staff member contracted the coronavirus last month. Photo: Edmond So

‘Don’t wait to get vaccinated’: what Hong Kong parents need to know about Covid-19 jabs for children aged 5 to 11

Children aged five to 11 will be able to receive the BioNTech vaccine from February 16. Photo: Xiaomei Chen

William Chui, president of the Society of Hospital Pharmacists of Hong Kong. Photo: Edward Wong

Government pandemic adviser Professor David Hui says it is safe for children to get vaccinated. Photo: Winson Wong

Pupils head home after school in Quarry Bay. From February 24, proof of having received at least the first dose of a vaccine will be required for staff and visitors entering school premises. Photo: Nora Tam

News

Hong Kong

Health & Environment

Coronavirus


Experts from University of Hong Kong say the only hope of returning to zero-Covid status quo is a two- to three-month ‘lockdown’
Bleak prediction comes as city confirms 986 new Covid-19 infections, with just one of them imported; one more virus-related fatality recorded



The team of experts from the University of Hong Kong also said the only hope of returning to the zero-Covid status quo was a two- to three-month ‘lockdown’.


Coronavirus pandemic

Coronavirus pandemic: All stories

Universities in Hong Kong

Shanghai