As Hongkongers worry about just the kind of lockdown they have to accept in the coming weeks, sources said officials were still weighing options while experts warned the city was ill-equipped to conduct a mainland China-style shutdown and mass testing. Even with additional reinforcements, the lack of facilities due to the sheer number of cases that would be unearthed would create more problems along with heightened infection risks during a lockdown in cramped homes. The issue of deciding which segments in society could still be allowed to go out for work also had to be carefully managed, the experts said. The city had to strike a fine balance between ensuring essential services could still operate while effectively limiting the movements of most residents. ‘9-day lockdown expected’ for Hong Kong mass Covid testing; 32,597 cases logged It would be no easy feat defining such workers, they said, as there are an estimated 800,000 employees in sectors covering catering, transport and property management. Government sources on Tuesday raised the possibility of a “large-scale lockdown” on top of a compulsory mass testing drive that could last for as short as nine days in mid-March at the earliest. But scant details, as Covid-19 numbers exploded beyond 30,000 for a second straight day, sparked panic buying across the city as residents wiped out supermarket shelves amid fears of food supply shortages. Tuesday’s infection tally was 32,597, with 172 related deaths. A lockdown would mark a policy U-turn after Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor ruled out any such move two weeks ago. On Monday, health minister Sophia Chan Siu-chee said it was still an option, while experts from the Beijing-based National Health Commission also gave similar advice. Lockdowns on the mainland have been massive in scale, and imposed with strict rules. At the start of the pandemic in early 2020, authorities in the eastern city of Wenzhou, with a population of 9 million, allowed only one resident per household to go out every two days to buy necessities, with daily confirmed cases only at 265. Highways, subway lines and public transport were also shut down. The most recent lockdown was imposed in Xian – a historic city with a population of 13 million – last December when six rounds of compulsory tests were conducted in 12 days, after the discovery of a Covid-19 cluster that grew to 2,100 cases. While residents were not permitted to leave their homes unless for testing or other approved reasons, thousands took to social media with complaints about running out of food and late deliveries of supplies due to a lack of drivers and other workers. Long queues at test sites were also a reported problem in the case of Xian, with online users claiming some people had queued in a park for five hours in the cold, only to be told to repeat the exercise again due to a “system overload”. Citing Xian’s experience, Hong Kong executive councillor Ronny Tong Ka-wah said six neighbouring provinces had offered personnel to ensure a sufficient supply of daily necessities for the mainland city. He warned that a similar scale of help was not feasible in Hong Kong, and that there could be a logistics bottleneck. Former Hospital Authority chief Leung Pak-yin said the mainland’s micromanagement in district administration was not something that could be replicated in Hong Kong. He added that keeping people at home might only contribute to the exponential spread of Omicron given Hong Kong’s dense living environment. Leung also pointed to insufficient quarantine facilities that could accommodate the infected. ‘As though there’s a war’: panic buying in Hong Kong as lockdown looms “For now, people in small or poorly ventilated homes can still go out for some fresh air if their family members are infected,” he said. “With all the potential risks of vertical and horizontal transmissions, a stay-home ban would only steepen the infection curve.” There are now 7,100 isolation beds in public hospitals and quarantine facilities offered by the government at Penny’s Bay and the AsiaWorld-Expo. A total of 70,000 temporary isolation units are expected to be available once all projects are completed. But Leung expected that accumulated caseloads could even skyrocket to 1 million later this month. He suggested that resources should be spent on speeding up the vaccination drive in elderly homes to protect the most vulnerable. Patients who were asymptomatic or with only mild conditions could recover at home with clear self-monitor guidelines, he added. Coronavirus: what is Hong Kong’s dynamic zero-infection strategy? Professor Yuen Kwok-yung from the University of Hong Kong, also a government adviser on the pandemic, said mass testing with lockdowns would not be effective amid a lack of logistical support for the chronically ill, elderly and disabled living alone. “We can only hope that the number of cases will go down into the hundreds with stringent social-distancing measures by April, [and then] hold this exercise,” Yuen said. “Otherwise, the sixth wave may come soon after the fifth ends.” Lawmaker Nixie Lam Lam of the pro-government Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong suggested introducing a mainland-style, health-code system during a lockdown, allowing residents to scan codes at testing centres with their phones rather than spend time handing over personal information. Melbourne went through the world’s longest Covid-19 lockdown from March 2020, spanning six rounds totalling nine months. Australian authorities at the time said reasons for people to leave home comprised: the need to shop for necessities, limited to one individual per household daily; care-giving; studying; getting vaccinated; one hour of exercise daily; and authorised work such as infrastructural or emergency repairs. Employers were asked to certify permits for staff to leave home. Australian authorities also imposed curfews from 9pm to 5am every night, while police patrols were ramped up. In Hong Kong, a key issue vexing officials is deciding which type of workers to define as those in essential services. A government source familiar with the matter said exemptions would be granted to personnel responsible for “maintaining essential services”, including frontline medical staff, the disciplined forces, journalists, and staff of care homes and financial institutions. Lack of clarity on Hong Kong lockdown plans has fuelled fears, experts warn Hong Kong’s civil service has a combined strength of 50,000 people across the police force and the fire and health departments. Government pandemic adviser Professor David Hui Shu-cheong suggested that catering workers should be allowed to operate to let residents order takeaways. He also suggested that security guards at residential properties should work with police to ensure people complied with a lockdown. There were an estimated 237,000 people working in hospitality and catering, and 166,800 in the transport industry according to official statistics at the end of 2020. About 400,000 people worked as security guards, cleaners, and repair workers at public and private properties, according to Johnnie Chan Chi-kau, former president and now spokesman for the Hong Kong Association of Property Management Companies. “If their work has to be suspended during the testing period, the city’s hygiene and discipline problems will get worse,” he said. “Authorities also have to think about infection risks if large numbers of patients remain in high-rise buildings, when quarantine facilities are not sufficient.” According to employment figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department, the trading and logistics sectors employed the most people – at 616,200 in 2020 among four key industries – while financial services accounted for 273,700. A source familiar with the matter said the current plan was to also exempt financial regulators, and allow a certain proportion of staff in various financial services sectors to continue to operate. The source stressed that without an exemption, it would be lights out for the finance industry, a key engine of the economy. Dr Liang Wannian, who leads a five-member team of medical experts from the mainland to help Hong Kong fight the surge in infections, said society had to pay a price to some extent for the dynamic zero-infection strategy, but it could allow residents to eventually resume normal activities. “Imposing restrictions on a very few, and with some medical and social intervention, can in exchange allow the majority of residents to return to their normal activities,” he said in an interview with China Central Television. According to Liang, who heads the Covid Response Expert Team of the National Health Commission, under the dynamic zero-infection strategy action should be taken immediately after the pandemic breaks out to cut transmission chains. Other countries failed to achieve zero infections as the virus had already caused continuous community transmission, and the pandemic had taken root. Additional reporting by Gary Cheung and Fiona Sun