Exclusive | Coronavirus: Hong Kong could be hit by sixth wave in as little as two weeks, pandemic adviser warns
- Professor Gabriel Leung says recent daily caseload of about 300 implies reproduction rate of virus is at 1, meaning health crisis could worsen ‘if things tilt in the wrong direction’
- Public health expert Yuen Kwok-yung, however, says residents need not panic as ‘immunity barrier’ has formed in the city either through infection or vaccination
A top government pandemic adviser has warned that Hong Kong could be hit by a sixth wave of the coronavirus in as little as two weeks, the Post has learned, while another public health expert has predicted the next large outbreak is more likely to arrive in October.
Professor Gabriel Leung, dean of the faculty of medicine at the University of Hong Kong (HKU), offered his timeline for the arrival of the next wave at a seminar for HKU doctors on Saturday, according to two attendees.
“He presented his data and essentially told us to get to our important engagements in these two weeks before things could get worse,” one insider said.
Separately, Leung noted in a tweet that the daily number of cases had remained static at about 300 for the past several weeks, which implied a reproduction rate of one, adding “we are on the cusp of a potential sixth wave if things tilt in the wrong direction”.
The reproduction rate of a virus estimates the number of people a patient can infect. An epidemic will worsen if the number is greater than one and vice versa.
The Post has contacted Leung for comment.
The warning came after the HKU faculty of medicine put out an urgent message on social media to its students and staff on Thursday, warning of a “large Covid-19 cluster” forming in Kennedy Town.