ExplainerCoronavirus: is a sixth wave of infections about to hit Hong Kong and should social-distancing curbs be tightened?

HKU’s Professor Gabriel Leung warned on Saturday of potential sixth wave of infections in coming weeks, but other health experts say there is no need to panic

Caseloads to fluctuate for longer period of time with relaxation of social-distancing curbs, says microbiologist Dr Ho Pak-leung

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Residents at a street market in Mong Kok after Hong Kong eased social-distancing measures last month. Photo: Edmond So

Published: 2:00pm, 17 May 2022Updated: 9:08pm, 17 May 2022

Hongkongers have been going out and visiting reopened premises such as cinemas and beauty parlours ever since social-distancing rules were further relaxed on April 21 amid declining Covid-19 infections.

However, with curbs set to be further lifted on Thursday, new clusters of infections have resurfaced, and a top government adviser has warned about the potential emergence of a fresh wave of cases.

The Post looks at whether a sixth Covid-19 wave is indeed approaching the city.

People flock to Shek O Beach earlier this month following the relaxation of social-distancing curbs. Photo: Nora Tam

1. Is the sixth wave coming? Why are experts talking about it?

Last Thursday, the University of Hong Kong’s (HKU) faculty of medicine warned of a potential “large Covid-19 cluster” developing in the Kennedy Town area and advised its students and staff not to eat or take part in any mask-off activities there.

A lockdown operation was conducted at Sai Wan Estate on the same day and 22 cases were detected, while health authorities reported clusters in several premises across Hong Kong.

The warning sparked concerns of another surge in cases. Hong Kong endured its fifth and most serious Covid-19 wave to date earlier this year, as more than 50,000 infections daily were logged at the peak of the wave and over 9,000 deaths were recorded between January and March.

Daily caseloads dropped to the triple-digits in mid-April and returned to a level of about 200 to 300 in May. At the same time, the number of hospitalisations and deaths dipped significantly.