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Hong Kong will need to rein in the spread of Omicron subvariants if the city aims to open up in time for Chinese Valentine’s Day, politicians and medical experts have said. Photo: Dickson Lee

Coronavirus: Hong Kong must rein in spread of Omicron subvariants, boost quarantine capacity to help reunite cross-border families, analysts say

  • Key benchmarks include virus’ reproductive rate falling below one and whether more transmissive Omicron subvariants become dominant strain in city, source says
  • Politicians hope new health minister will continue pressing mainland authorities to effect more changes

Hong Kong will need to rein in the spread of more transmissible Omicron subvariants and work with Chinese authorities to boost quarantine capacity on both sides if more cross-border families and couples are to be reunited in time for next month’s Qixi Festival, medical experts and politicians have said.

New Secretary for Health Professor Lo Chung-mau on Monday reignited the debate on reopening the border with mainland China, revealing in a blog post marking his first full working day that he had successfully negotiated for more quarantine spaces and a tougher crackdown on profiteers and abusers in Shenzhen.

“Controlling Hong Kong’s epidemic and reducing community infections are the most important elements in increasing cross-border flow and border reopening,” he wrote, adding that cooperation between Hong Kong and Shenzhen could reunite families like the festival’s legendary lovebirds, Zhinu the weaver girl and Niulang the cowherd, during the Chinese Valentine’s Day of Qixi, which falls on August 4 this year.

New Secretary for Health Professor Lo Chung-mau. Photo: Sam Tsang

But Lo left open the question as to how exactly he planned to achieve the goal of re-establishing travel with the mainland with fewer quarantine curbs, or how to bring down infection numbers in Hong Kong.

A source familiar with the government’s internal assessment told the Post on Tuesday that a key benchmark in measuring whether the local epidemic situation had eased was when the virus’ reproductive rate – meaning the estimated number of people each Covid-19 patient could infect on average – was less than one and the daily caseload started falling.

The latest rate, at 1.41, suggested a slowly rising trend.

Another metric was whether the more transmissive Omicron subvariants BA.4 and BA.5 would become a dominant strain in the community, the source added.

“There are people reinfected with the new strains even though they were previously infected with BA.1 in Singapore, the US or EU countries,” the source said. “But people in Hong Kong were mainly infected with BA.2, whether they could be reinfected with the new strain would require more study.”

Another insider familiar with anti-epidemic policy said authorities were considering more precise and targeted measures to combat Covid-19, so as to avoid the need for indiscriminate social-distancing curbs.

Options being considered include conducting more frequent and timely PCR tests for targeted groups such as staff at homes for the elderly and inbound travellers, exercising more control on access to places including care homes and hospitals to protect high-risk groups in those facilities, and tightening access to people at risk such as those under home quarantine and subject to compulsory testing.

Hong Kong border with mainland China ‘could open for Chinese Valentine’s Day’

Pro-establishment lawmakers on Monday lauded Lo’s “good start” in office, but urged him to go further. Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong lawmaker Ben Chan Han-pan said an increase from 1,300 official quarantine units in Shenzhen to 2,000 and the crackdown on scalpers who booked and resold those places for profit were “modest and insufficient”.

“It was certainly a good start from the new health secretary that he could make things happen using his long-established contacts with mainland authorities cultivated when he was chief executive of the University of Hong Kong-Shenzhen Hospital,” Chan said.

“I expect him to continue pressing mainland officials to effect more changes.”

Chan proposed freeing up some 10,000 currently idle community isolation units in the city to house north-bound Hongkongers for quarantine, before loading them onto closed-loop transport to the mainland after the seven-day isolation period.

The supervisory efforts and goodwill of officials from the national and Guangdong health commissions would be a key factor in ensuring the closed-loop arrangements were up to mainland standards, he added.

09:43

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Legislator Bill Tang Ka-piu, of the Federation of Trade Unions, also praised Lo for turning in “satisfactory homework”, but called for an increase in quota to 5,000 and priority to be given to Hongkongers with roots in the Greater Bay Area or those with illnesses who needed to cross the border for treatment.

Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu previously briefed Guangdong and Shenzhen officials on the phone regarding the new government’s work direction.

According to the Immigration Department, the daily number of people entering the mainland via the Shenzhen Bay control point over the past seven days ranged from 1,113 to 1,548.

Government pandemic adviser Professor David Hui Shu-cheong said that suppressing infection figures to reopen the border could be difficult given that social-distancing measures had been relaxed.

“Many [Covid-19] cases have unknown sources of infection, including those of BA.2, BA.2.12.1, BA.4 and BA.5. The virus is deep-rooted in the community. It will be hard to completely extinguish it,” he said, adding that if authorities wanted to control the infections with PCR tests, they would have to ensure a fast turnover rate and adequate testing capacity.

Travellers depart the city via a local control point at the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau bridge. Photo: Felix Wong

Hui said Chan’s proposal would be feasible and suggested the government discuss with mainland authorities whether the criteria for reopening the border could be revised, now that the mainland had “experienced Omicron outbreaks”.

“People from specific groups such as businessmen or those visiting their families can be required to undergo close-loop management,” he added.

It would take time to see whether the BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants would become the dominant strain in the city, Hui said, as they only accounted for around 1 per cent of the overall daily infection figures.

“There might be a bit of immunity escape [for those who have been infected before]. But if you have also been vaccinated and infected, the protection provided by the hybrid immunity would be high,” he said.

Former Hong Kong leader calls for visitor quota at border with mainland China

Even if the subvariants became the dominant strain, he said, it would not be a large concern.

“When you have a high vaccination rate, even if people are infected, the healthcare system is able to handle it,” he said. “As long as we continue to boost the vaccination rate for the third dose and help people at high risks receive the fourth dose, we will be very safe.”

As of July 4, there were a total of 495 cases of BA.4 or BA.5 and 709 cases of BA.2.12.1.

Health authorities on Monday said the BA.4 and BA.5 cases now accounted for 1 per cent or less of the overall daily infections.

Additional reporting by Olga Wong

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