Hong Kong anti-smoking watchdog calls for 75% increase in tobacco tax to bring city in line with WHO standards
- Watchdog says 75% tobacco tax rise will cut smoking rate in Hong Kong to 8.8 per cent
- Academic estimates 28,000 smokers will quit habit, preventing 9,350 premature deaths
Hong Kong should increase its tobacco tax by 75 per cent to reach international standards, the city’s anti-smoking watchdog has said, with such a move estimated to make 28,000 people kick the habit.
The Hong Kong Council on Smoking and Health said on Tuesday that a tax rise of that size could cut the smoking rate by around 0.7 percentage points to 8.8 per cent. However, other control measures would be needed to bring the current rate of 9.5 per cent down to the city’s 7.8 per cent goal by next year, it added.
The council, a statutory body which advises the government on smoking issues, made the call ahead of the budget next month. The tobacco tax was increased by 31.5 per cent in last year’s budget.
‘Hong Kong tobacco tax increase needed to cut smoking rate to 7.8% next year’
“Raising tobacco tax should be prioritised for achieving the smoking reduction target,” council chairman Henry Tong Sau-chai said at a press conference.
“[The increase last year] was insufficient to compensate for the price gap caused by the freezing of the tax rate in the previous eight years.”
A pack of 20 cigarettes currently costs HK$78, with tax taking up around HK$50, or 64.1 per cent of the retail price.
The council noted that as the World Health Organization had stated that tax should account for at least three-quarters of the retail price, Hong Kong would need to raise it by 75 per cent to reach that goal.
The council said the tax on each pack should be increased to HK$87.50, accounting for 75.76 per cent of the suggested retail price of HK$115.50.
Hana Ross, an honorary research associate from the University of Cape Town’s school of economics, said raising the tax to that level could reduce the current smoking rate by 0.7 percentage points to 8.8 per cent.
Ross, who joined the press conference via video call, estimated that around 28,000 smokers would quit the habit, and 9,350 premature deaths would be prevented.
She said such a tax increase could reduce smoking-related social costs by at least HK$5 billion and generate an extra HK$4 billion in revenue.
Based on her estimates, the tax increase last year would have brought down the smoking prevalence rate from 9.5 per cent to 9.2 per cent, or 12,600 fewer smokers.
“[Hong Kong is] in a really good position to reduce prevalence to the point in getting close to what we call the ‘endgame’,” she said, referring to a figure of 5 per cent or below.
Forty-one countries, including France, the United Kingdom and Australia, have reached the WHO’s recommended level of tobacco tax.
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Tong said it would be “challenging” to bring down the rate to 7.8 per cent by next year, and other measures – such as an additional annual tobacco tax increase above the inflation rate, expanding indoor non-smoking areas and banning the sale of flavoured cigarettes – would be needed as well to reach the goal.
According to a council survey done in 2023, 68.5 per cent of 2,800 interviewees supported increasing tobacco tax this year, while 64.6 per cent were in favour of an annual rise in duty.
Council executive director Vienna Lai Wai-yin argued that raising the tax could benefit people on a lower income rather than adding to their financial burden.
She said smokers in that group were more likely to quit because of higher tax, and the money saved on cigarettes could help cover other daily expenses.
Based on previously collected government data on smoking patterns, the council estimated a smoker could save HK$17,760 a year after quitting.
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The amount was equivalent to the cost of 18 months of two-dish-rice dinners, 7½ months of public housing rent, or 130 months of internet fees.
The Long-term Tobacco Policy Concern Group said past data indicated that raising the tax would not help to lower the smoking rate but could worsen the problem of illicit cigarettes.
“The concern group expresses strong opposition to and frustration at the council’s repeated factless recommendations,” it said.
Tong argued that it was a “false proposition” that a spike in tax would worsen the problem of illicit cigarettes.
He said manufacturers had increased the price of cigarettes by HK$11 from 2015 to 2022 when the tax was frozen, but no concern groups had come forward to complain that such a rise could lead to more illicit cigarettes.
The Health Bureau said in a reply to the Post that it was analysing feedback from the public collected in a consultation exercise done last year and would report the outcome and way forward in due course.
The bureau said views of relevant stakeholders including the council would be taken into account.
