American business community in Hong Kong expects ‘more comfortable’ conditions under Biden presidency
- While many see the Democratic president-elect as a more ‘stable’ option than Donald Trump, the US’ relationship with China is not likely to change much
- Recent controversial moves, such as revoking Hong Kong’s special trade status, are not expected to be rolled back either, observers predict
Joseph Ferrigno, an American financier and adviser who has lived in Hong Kong for more than 30 years, said he believed Biden would have “targeted engagement” with China.
“Whereas currently the Trump administration had been doing everything that is reasonable to decouple from China, I think that will change,” Ferrigno said.
The mood among American companies was generally positive, he added, because they saw a “less confrontational” approach towards China, which would make it “more comfortable” for them to do business with the mainland through Hong Kong.
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“The issue is the American public – regardless of what side of the aisle they’re on – is pretty unanimous in terms of their view now of China.”
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Hong Kong, meanwhile, has been stuck in the middle of the tug of war between Beijing and Washington, with Trump ending the city’s preferential trade status, and signing an executive order in July paving the way for sanctions against individuals and banks was deemed to have aided in the erosion of the city’s autonomy.
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Amid all the tumult, Tara Joseph, president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong, said “there is some relief to see that we have a path forward”.
“The American business community, like the rest of the world, has a lot to contend with, from Covid- 19, to patchy economic growth, to a fractious US-China relationship,” she said. “So much has been on hold during the election season.”
But Julien Chaisse, a trade law professor at City University, warned that Hong Kong remained “caught between the two”. He said he did not believe that Biden would reinstate Hong Kong’s preferential trade status, because that would be perceived as being “in favour of China”.
“We are not back to the best years, but at least US trade policy should become more predictable and stable, which will help trade and businesses in Hong Kong to adjust,” he said.
Chaisse said he believed that while Joe Biden would “return to the multilateral table because he is not a protectionist”, the US-China trade relationship would remain “strongly antagonised” – with consequences for Hong Kong.
“It is not yet the end of the trade war and Hong Kong will have to defend its rights,” he said, pointing to Hong Kong’s claim against the US at the World Trade Organization over the made-in-China labelling spat.
Baptist University Professor Jean-Pierre Cabestan, who specialises in Sino-American relations, also agreed that a Biden administration would not take a “risk” in restoring the made-in-Hong Kong labelling.
“It would acknowledge that Hong Kong remains autonomous, which [the US] does not believe is the case any more,” he said.