They also said the worst days for workers in retail and catering could be over, and there might be more job opportunities for young people in those sectors. Businesses in sectors such as tourism, aviation and hotels could only be revived when cross-border and international travel resumed, they added.

Some 247,500 were unemployed between February and April, official statistics showed, out of a workforce of about 3.8 million.

Chan said the unemployment rate could return to the level from a year ago, which was around 5.9 per cent to 6.2 per cent, according to data from the Census and Statistics Department.

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“As pandemic control measures are gradually delivering results, while the number of people getting vaccinated continuously increases, Hong Kong’s economy which has suffered under Covid-19 is slowly regaining momentum,” Chan wrote on his blog.

He said the job market had seen improvements as the city’s gross domestic product recorded growth, following a 17-year-high jobless rate of 7.2 per cent between December last year and this February.

A wider recovery, Chan said, would depend on effective infection control measures and the reopening of borders with mainland China and foreign countries. Vaccination was also one of the ways to help society return to normal.

“Based on the improvements over the past months, the coming release of the latest unemployment rate should … return to the level of almost a year ago,” Chan said. “But compared to the situation before the pandemic when nearly everyone was employed, it will still be a long way.”

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As Hongkongers would be able to start registering for HK$5,000 worth of e-vouchers in July as the HK$36 billion scheme entered its final preparation stage, it could soon create an atmosphere for consumption and boost sales for retailers and businesses, he added.

Chan also said the latest round of inflation-linked government debt, known as iBonds, attracted a record HK$54.5 billion from more than 710,000 people, noting the final issuance will be raised from HK$15 billion to HK$20 billion.  

Hong Kong opened booking for vaccinations to about 240,000 people aged between 12 and 15 on Friday, with jabs for this age group to be administered starting on Monday. The city has been experiencing a sluggish vaccine take-up rate since the drive was rolled out in late February.

About 15.9 per cent of the city’s 7.5 million population have already received both doses of either the German-made BioNTech vaccine or the China-produced Sinovac version as of Sunday.

Professor Terence Chong Tai-leung, an economist at Chinese University, said he believed the “worst had passed” for the jobs market and predicted the unemployment rate would fall further in the coming few months.

 “Most industries which suffered a hit amid the pandemic, such as catering and construction, have seen a significant improvement,” he said. “Even if another wave of infections hit the city, the impact could be limited given that we already have vaccines now.”

The government in February relaxed its tough social-distancing regulations, with long-closed businesses such as gyms, beauty salons and cinemas reopening. In April, authorities also rolled out a “vaccine bubble”, which allowed further easing of social-distancing rules for outlets including bars and karaoke lounges if staff and customers were inoculated.

Chong said a jobless rate of around 5 per cent or even lower by the end of this year was possible under a gradual recovery even if borders stayed shut. But there would still be a gap compared with pre-pandemic levels.

Before the pandemic, the employment rate was around 3.3 per cent between October and December in 2019.

“If borders can reopen, those industries including aviation and hotels will also be able to bounce back … Under [borders reopening] with economic activities resuming, that might amount to a further 1.5 per cent to 2 per cent drop in the unemployment rate,” Chong said.

Human resources consultant Alexa Chow Yee-ping said while industries such as retail and entertainment saw a recovery, the situation with workers being put on unpaid leave or suffering pay cuts in different sectors was not reflected in the improving jobless rate.

Chow, managing director of the company ACTS, also expected the jobless rate could fall to around 5 per cent by the end of this year even if borders remained shut. She said uncertainties over another wave of infections loomed amid the ongoing pandemic and stressed the importance of vaccination.

The vaccination rate was also a main factor considered by mainland China as well as overseas countries in discussions for reopening borders, she said, adding: “If more people get jabbed, such worries will be relatively limited.”

Statistics from employment portal JobsDB last month showed the average pay rise among 4,200 employees polled was 0.4 per cent – the lowest in more than a decade – although its data released in April reflected that the number of jobs for fresh graduates increased slightly in the first quarter of this year.

Danny Lau Tat-pong, honorary chairman of the Hong Kong Small and Medium Enterprises Association, said he expected the job-hunting situation for young people to improve this year as the coronavirus eased.

Lau predicted there could roughly be an overall 10 per cent rise in the number of job openings for fresh graduates, with industries such as catering, retail and logistics experiencing a more significant boost.