Hong Kong exports set to recede after months of mounting optimism as coronavirus crisis and rising costs erode business confidence

Fears prevalent among local exporters that Christmas sales will decline by up to 30 per cent, according to Trade Development Council confidence index

Business academic says Hong Kong government’s ‘overly stringent’ Covid-19 control measures are detrimental to local exports

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Local exporters are largely pessimistic about their prospects ahead of the traditional Christmas rush. Photo: Winson Wong

Published: 7:42pm, 14 Sep 2021Updated: 10:05pm, 14 Sep 2021

Hong Kong exports are forecast to run out of steam in the third quarter of this year following a continuous rise in business confidence since early 2020, in an analysis casting fresh economic uncertainty over the city’s trade prospects ahead of the traditional Christmas peak.

Trader confidence in Hong Kong exports for the period covering July to September 2021 slipped back to its first-quarter level as businesses registered concerns about the continuing impact of the Covid-19 crisis and surging transport costs, according to the Trade Development Council (TDC).

Published on Tuesday, TDC’s export index fell 9.7 points to 39, the level posted for January to March this year.

The index had risen for five consecutive quarters since recording a historic low of 16 for the first quarter of 2020. Any figure below 50 indicates a negative outlook.

The TDC confidence index is designed to gauge business sentiment for exporting in the short term. It is based on the views of 500 local exporters.

Exports jumped 30 per cent year on year for January to June 2021 and imports were up 27 per cent, according to government figures.