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The US Federal Reserve has increased the benchmark interest rate again, but the inflation-fighting move is unlikely to mean cheaper American imports or lower-cost petrol. Photo: Shutterstock

US inflation-fighting interest rate increase will mean higher Hong Kong borrowing costs and no cut in fuel prices, experts predict

  • Economists say fuel, imports from US unlikely to be cheaper after Federal Reserve increases benchmark interest rate by 0.75 per cent
  • Car salesman, however, said interest rate rise will probably not affect demand for new vehicles

The US Federal Reserve’s bid to rein in inflation with another 0.75 percentage point hike in its benchmark interest rate could yield little consumer relief in Hong Kong, with economists warning the city’s car drivers would be unlikely to benefit from a possible fall in oil prices because of the oligopoly market in the city.

Economists added the city’s currency-peg policy, which fixes Hong Kong’s dollar at about 7.80 to the US one, meant residents would face higher borrowing costs alongside their American counterparts.

They also said US imports were also unlikely to become cheaper, even if the Fed’s bid to curb inflation was successful.

“It is the third consecutive 0.75 point rise. Hongkongers will soon begin to feel the impact of these moves in recent months,” said Billy Mak Sui-choi, an associate professor at Baptist University’s department of finance and decision sciences.

“Higher interest rates will raise the cost of borrowing, whether you take out a home mortgage or car loans.”

Nutritionist Angela Lee said her decision not to take out a loan to buy a new seven-seater car gave her a narrow escape from another interest rate hike. She instead signed off on a used one last month, with full payment.

“A new one costs close to HK$1 million [US$127,400]. I had thought of taking a car loan. But everybody was talking about rate increases, a poorer economic outlook,” said Lee, who operates a health centre in Central.

“I eventually decided to give it up and made full payment to buy a used one. Looking back, I have saved big bucks with no need to worry about interest rates.”

A car salesman, who asked not to be identified, said his company was also considering raising interest rates for car loans in the wake of the US rate hike, but that it might not deter customers.

“It may have a slight impact on sales in the short term. But unlike a flat, cars cost much less. We are talking about HK$200,000 or HK$300,000. A slight rate adjustment will not be a very big burden on the buyer,” he said.

“Car loan rates are mostly dictated by the type of car and the buyer’s credit score or income. Sometimes, the salesman will offer you a special rate to make a deal,” he said, adding that some buyers might opt to take out personal loans from a bank.

The US rate hike was also expected to weigh on global oil prices as it could slow down the economy and weaken demand, but Professor Terence Chong Tai-leung, an economist at Chinese University, said the possible fall in global demand for crude oil was unlikely to translate into lower petrol prices in Hong Kong.

“They are two separate markets,” Chong said. “The petrol market in Hong Kong is not competitive. There is no need for the oil companies to reduce petrol prices even if crude oil prices drop.”

US imports to Hong Kong are unlikely to be cheaper after the US Federal Reserve announces another increase in its benchmark interest rate to combat inflation. Photo: Winson Wong

Website globalpetrolprices.com, which tracks petrol prices in more than 150 countries and jurisdictions, said on Monday the cost in Hong Kong was about US$2.97 a litre, more than double the international average of US$1.31.

Oil companies in Hong Kong have argued the expense of fuel in the city was partly due to the high cost of land to build petrol stations, and that import costs, government duty and wages also affected prices at the pumps.

Refined oil products such as petrol are mostly imported from Singapore. HK$6.06 per litre of the retail price for unleaded petrol goes to the government as fuel tax.

It remains to be seen if the latest Fed rate increase will tame inflation, but economists said Hong Kong consumers would probably not see lower prices for US imports.

Hong Kong last year imported about HK$206.7 billion worth of goods from the United States, up 18.3 per cent year on year. The country accounted for about 3.9 per cent of the city’s total imports in 2021, Census and Statistics Department figures show.

Hong Kong was the US’ third largest market for wine exports and the seventh largest market for beef and beef products in 2021.

Other major exports from the US to Hong Kong last year were electrical machinery, and appliances, telecommunications equipment, and works of art, the Trade and Industry Department said.

“Because of the dollar-peg system, stronger US dollars also means stronger Hong Kong dollars,” Mak said. “However, there is the possibility that imports from Southeast Asia or mainland China, like food, could become cheaper.”

Simon Wong Ka-wo, president of the Hong Kong Federation of Restaurants and Related Trades, said imports decreased because the economy was not very good and demand for high-quality food declined. As such, costs would stay high.

“And because of the Russia-Ukraine war, the supply of some food ingredients and products remains unstable,” he added.

Dr Lee Shu-kam, head of Shue Yan University’s department of economics and finance, pointed to the “wealth effect”, where people spend more when the value of their assets increased because they felt more financially secure.

But he said they could also be made to feel poorer and would not spend if their asset values were going to be hit, which could affect economic growth.

Lee said: “It may not sound earth-shattering as it may only mean slightly higher living costs for consumers in the short term. But, with a drop in asset values, even if people still have a job, with the same pay level, their wealth actually shrinks and they will not be as willing as before to spend.

“Enterprises could also adjust their investment because of the higher borrowing costs. It will result in a spiral effect and the economy could keep going down.”

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