A housing glut in Hong Kong? Mega projects risk churning out too many flats as population trends change, experts warn
- Lantau Tomorrow Vision and Northern Metropolis call for building about 1 million flats in coming years
- But experts argue previous estimation city will have more than 8 million residents by 2041 may no longer be accurate, noting population has fallen for past two years
Hong Kong’s future population may not be large enough to fill up roughly 1 million flats the government plans to build on three artificial islands off Lantau and along the mainland China border, critics have warned, raising the spectre of what would be a new problem for the city – a housing glut.
They also cautioned on Wednesday the government’s latest HK$580 billion (US$74.5 billion) price tag for the Lantau Tomorrow Vision was unrealistic and the final figure would exceed HK$800 billion due to inflation and expected increases in construction costs.
Professor Paul Yip Siu-fai, an expert in demographics at the University of Hong Kong, questioned whether official estimates on the city’s housing needs in the years ahead remained accurate given recent changes in population trends.
“Despite it being a good thing to improve the tight living conditions in Hong Kong, it is worth discussing whether we still need the reclamation project,” Yip said. “The population growth will definitely be slower than the government estimate … The city may not be able to digest the supply.”
But a bureau spokesman earlier defended the need for the two mega projects, arguing society had reached a consensus on speeding up land supply for housing and economic development.