The surge in retail sales could be attributed to the improvement of consumer sentiment and the sharp rebound in visitor arrivals, a government spokesman said. Last year’s poor figures, when the city was battered by the fifth wave of Covid-19 infections, also allowed plenty of room for improvement, he said.

“Looking ahead, the retail sector performance will continue to benefit from the recovery of private consumption and inbound tourism,” he said.

However, analysts said they believed the strong figures stemmed from the comparatively low base of last year and were less linked to the return of tourists, citing the weak sales performance of tourism-related goods.

They also maintained a pessimistic market outlook for March and April, despite the government rolling out a new round of consumption vouchers next month.

All border restrictions between Hong Kong and mainland China were lifted in February, allowing for the long-awaited resumption of regular travel and the return of tourists.

The government also kicked off its “Hello Hong Kong” campaign last month to lure tourists with free airline tickets and dining and shopping vouchers.

The city welcomed 1.46 million tourists in February, the first time the figure exceeded 1 million since the outbreak of the pandemic in early 2020.

However, the Hong Kong Retail Management Association said the significant jump in sales figures could not be fully attributed to the rebound in tourism, as visitor numbers in February accounted for less than a third of the monthly level in 2018.

“The return of tourists has little to do with the jump in retail sales figure, it’s more driven by the low base in 2022,” the association’s chairwoman Annie Tse Yau On-yee said. “The whole industry is short 30,000 employees, mainly frontline workers, and that has led to a rise in manpower costs and declining service quality.”

In an association survey of 4,300 retail outlets earlier this month, more than 80 per cent expressed worries over the increases in operating costs, including rent, electricity, and manpower amid interest rate rises and a sector-wide talent shortage.

Bond Law, executive director of the association, said retail sales surged for jewellery, watches and clocks, and valuable gifts, from about HK$4.4 billion in January to HK$5 billion last month following the reopening of the border with the mainland. But the numbers remained very low compared with 2018, he said.

Bond also noted a double-digit year-on-year decline in supermarket sales figures as well as those for fish, livestock and poultry, which he attributed to residents panic buying and stockpiling necessities during the peak of the pandemic in 2022.

Sales for products typically bought by residents, such as furniture and electrical goods, also recorded only a modest increase. This illustrated the currently low spending power of local residents, he added.

“The retail sales in April are very worrying, as many residents will travel during the Easter holiday, instead of spending in Hong Kong,” Law said. “Although the government will give a HK$3,000 consumption voucher instalment on April 16, its effect on stimulating the economy will be quite limited, compared with the HK$5,000 in an instalment last year.”