Fanny Yeung Shuk-fan, executive director of the Travel Industry Council, estimated that about 2,800 outbound tour groups – or 70,000 people – would depart the city in December, with around half over Christmas and the New Year holiday.

That is 70 per cent of the level in 2018, before the city was hit by anti-government protests in 2019 followed by the pandemic.

“After all, it is Christmas so a lot of people are looking for a white Christmas,” she said. “Hokkaido tours in Japan and going to Korea for skiing are very popular within Asia.”

Many residents would also head across the border to mainland China via high-speed rail on short trips, Yeung added.

By 9pm, the city had recorded a net outflow of 261,327 people on Saturday via air, land and sea border crossings, with 599,225 departing and 337,898 coming in, according to department data.

Experts said the outflow of holidaymakers was expected with residents taking advantage of weaker regional currencies and tax rebates for spending, while the novelty of the first Christmas abroad since borders reopened was also a factor.

Meanwhile, about 3.8 million visitors would travel to the city for the month of December to January 2, which was 60 per cent of 2018 levels, Yeung estimated.

But experts did not expect a large bump in visitors over the holiday period to offset the numbers leaving, predicting a gloomy outlook for the retail and catering sectors.

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To encourage local consumption, Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu visited the newly revamped night market at Temple Street in Jordan and the inaugural Christmas market at the West Kowloon Cultural District on Saturday.

The city leader enjoyed mulled wine and street food at the West Kowloon market, with the operators of the two stalls he visited telling the Post that business had exceeded expectations.

Lee later praised the vendors’ offerings before urging food and beverage businesses to ramp up efforts in attracting local customers during the holiday season, as many Hongkongers would travel abroad.

“No matter how many Hongkongers have flown out for travel, there are still around 7 million Hongkongers in the city looking forward to different activities. This is a big consumer group,” Lee said.

“We will need everyone’s participation to enliven Hong Kong and make things more enjoyable.”

The Immigration Department estimated that 9.03 million people, including residents and visitors, would travel in and out of Hong Kong during the Christmas and New Year holiday period.

About 83.5 per cent of the travellers would pass through land crossing points with the mainland, while the rest would be via sea or air.

The Airport Authority said it expected passenger traffic to peak at 160,000 every day with 760 flights during the Christmas and New Year holiday.

The authority, which runs the airport, said the most popular destinations according to the number of flights during the holiday period were Taipei, Shanghai, Bangkok, Tokyo and London.

Among those travelling was Alexandra Berry, who was excited to spend Christmas with her sister, brother-in-law and mother at their family home in Phuket, Thailand, for the first time in four years.

“It feels so great to be able to come and enjoy it together after a few years of missing out,” said the 32-year-old Hong Kong-born resident, who works in public relations.

But Tommy Tam Kwong-shun, chairman of the Society of IATA Passenger Agents, had expected more people from Hong Kong to travel over the holiday period – pointing to outbound group tours for December being not more than 60 per cent of 2019 levels.

“Being the first Christmas since the opening of the borders and since Covid-19, it should be a peak season, but … it is not really booming this year,” Tam said, pointing to high air fares and economic factors weighing on domestic travel sentiment.

For visitors, he added, those from long-haul destinations, such as Europe and the United States, had been slow to recover.

Gary Ng Cheuk-yan, a senior economist for Asia-Pacific at Natixis Corporate and Investment Bank, said Christmas was not a holiday on the mainland, and with 80 per cent of tourists to the city coming from across the border, he did not expect inbound tourism to offset the numbers leaving over the festive period.

Ng said he was not confident that the gap between inbound and outbound tourism would narrow, because of the strong demand for travel from Hong Kong, and the city’s lack of competitiveness and attractiveness to the world.

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He said that Hongkongers travelling to Shenzhen at weekends was part of a wider trend of people flocking across the border and overseas for cheaper and better services.

Therefore, the retail and catering sectors would not see a “significant pick up” in spending during the holidays, Ng said.

“I do not think that this will be a very Merry Christmas for most of the retailers in Hong Kong,” he said, pointing to rising rents and labour costs squeezing profits, in particular, for smaller businesses.

Economist Simon Lee Siu-po, an honorary fellow at the Asia-Pacific Institute of Business at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, said he estimated a loss of HK$2 billion to HK$3 billion (US$384 million) in retail sales and around a HK$1 billion loss in the catering sector this month.

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Lee said the weak currencies in the region were among reasons that made short-haul travel attractive for Hong Kong residents.

“Shenzhen offers a tax rebate, while Japan offered sales and a tax rebate, putting Hong Kong at a big disadvantage,” he said.

But Yeung argued that the city’s Christmas decorations and lights would be appealing for people from the mainland or Southeast Asia looking for the “festive mood”, which they might not experience at home.

According to a search by the Post, available hotel rooms on Hong Kong Island and Kowloon cost from HK$800 to move than HK$4,000 for a night for December 23 and 24.

Additional reporting by Jess Ma and Harvey Kong