Opinion | Drawn-out post-Brexit trade talks pose threat to Hong Kong exporters
As if the prospect of lengthy UK-EU negotiations was not bad enough, the collapse in the pound, likely rise in interest rates and higher oil prices will all provide problems to overcome
Since the UK referendum result on June 23 there has been uncertainty about the terms of the UK’s exit from, and the precise shape of its future relationship with, the European Union.
The UK formally starts its exit process by serving a notice under Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. This notice has yet to be served and the current indications from the UK government are that it is unlikely to do so before the end of March 2017.
The question of how the UK government can serve notice under Article 50 is disputed. The government view is that it has power, through the crown prerogative, to serve notice under Article 50 without needing prior Parliamentary approval. That view was successfully challenged before the High Court in England.
In early December the Supreme Court held hearings on the government’s attempt to overturn the High Court decision, with judgment likely to emerge in January.
In the meantime, Theresa May, the prime minister, held a vote in the UK parliament, asking MPs to make a commitment on whether they would vote in favour of invoking Article 50 in March. The motion was being approved by a vote of 461 to 89.
This does not however negate the need for a Supreme Court decision, and the issue is important because needing approval from Parliament raises a question as to whether and when it will be forthcoming. If Parliamentary approval is needed, this may have endangered the March timetable. Conversely, if the Supreme Court decides that the crown prerogative does cover exercising Article 50 then the March deadline looks very feasible.