Woo supporters would largely back Tsang if their man is eliminated in Hong Kong leadership vote
Latest public poll commissioned by Post shows only nine per cent of Woo supporters would switch to Carrie Lam in such a scenario
More than three quarters of Hongkongers backing chief executive candidate Woo Kwok-hing would switch their support to John Tsang Chun-wah should the retired judge be eliminated in the first round of voting for the March 26 election, according to the latest poll commissioned by the Post.
Only nine per cent of Woo’s supporters would opt for Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor if such a scenario were to arise, findings showed.
The question was put to respondents who had indicated their support for one of the three candidates.
If none of the three win at least 601 votes in the first round of voting it will force a second round from which the candidate with the least votes will be eliminated. Respondents were asked which of the remaining candidates they would support in that event.
The poll findings showed that if Woo were eliminated, 75.7 per cent of those who had supported him would switch to Tsang during the subsequent round of voting.
If however Tsang were eliminated, 60.9 per cent of his supporters would opt for Woo, compared with 27 per cent for Lam.
If Lam were ousted in the first round, 69.2 per cent of her supporters would switch to Tsang in the second round, as compared to 10 per cent for Woo.
Analysts agreed the findings confirmed the common belief that Tsang and Woo largely shared the same pool of supporters more inclined towards the city’s pan-democratic political camp.
Woo and Tsang secured 180 and 165 nominations respectively from the 1,194 members of the Election Committee which will vote on March 26 for Hong Kong’s next leader. Woo’s were all from the pan-democratic camp, while some 80 per cent of Tsang’s were from the bloc.
Professor Francis Lee Lap-fung, of Chinese University’s school of journalism and communication, said: “Even though it will become a two-horse race in the second round of voting, that may not make the race tighter, given the strong backing Lam gets from Beijing and the weak base of support for Woo on the Election Committee.”
Committee member and Civic Party leader Alan Leong Kah-kit hinted that Woo could face a “zero” vote tally, saying the 300-plus pan-democrat members of the committee would likely pick Tsang. He said the camp’s strategy was to vote for a candidate capable of taking down Lam and Beijing’s liaison office in Hong Kong, which has been supporting her.
In the poll, Woo’s support rate stood at 10.1 per cent among the public compared with Tsang’s 46.6 and Lam’s 29.5.
Under the electoral arrangements, only the Election Committee can vote on who becomes the chief executive. Some 326 of its members are from the pan-democratic camp while the rest are largely seen as pro-establishment.
The election will take place on March 26, with the first round of voting in the morning. It will be a secret ballot. The candidate who obtains more than 600 valid votes will be elected, otherwise the candidate with the least votes will be eliminated and the two remaining hopefuls will enter a second round of voting, scheduled for the early afternoon that day.
If needed there will be a third round, scheduled for the evening.
Additional reporting by Shirley Zhao
