‘Baffling’ discrepancies found in population estimates for 2015 Hong Kong district council elections
Differences in authorities’ figures compared with official statistics spark concerns over projections for next polls and influence on voting patterns
Election authorities severely undercounted populations by as much as 36 per cent in the 2015 district council elections compared with what census data showed, raising concerns that smaller constituencies – presumably easier for the opposition to win – would be merged and “wiped off the map”.
The differences in numbers found by the Post sparked fears over inaccurate population forecasts by the Electoral Affairs Commission for the next election round in 2019.
Population estimates determine the rezoning of constituencies, which in turn can influence the re-election chances of political incumbents, as their supporters are moved across areas according to fresh boundaries drawn.
The system has raised accusations of gerrymandering, especially from the opposition camp, who believe there is a political agenda behind the redrawing of the map. Authorities have denied this.
District councillors can also influence elections for Hong Kong’s next chief executive. Last year, they chose 117 representatives among them out of a total of 431 to vote for the city’s leadership, taking up about 10 per cent of the 1,194-strong Election Committee.
Out of 431 constituencies in the 2015 district council polls, 66 had discrepancies in population estimates of more than 10 per cent compared with census figures – a mark an analyst said was “baffling”.
By law, the commission has to review boundaries of district council constituencies and make recommendations to the chief executive ahead of an election.