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Tammy Tam
SCMP Columnist
City Beat
by Tammy Tam
City Beat
by Tammy Tam

China-US tension is new normal regardless of Hong Kong human rights bill, but city will change

  • Hong Kong has been dragged into the ‘fighting-while-negotiating’ game between Beijing and Washington – and negative impacts are unavoidable
  • The world has also come to realise it is not just a tariff war, but a tech war and even a new cold war involving many fronts

To sign or not to sign?

That’s the question for US President Donald Trump, who is due to make a decision on new legislation that will put Hong Kong under annual scrutiny for a Washington-granted favourable trade status the city has been enjoying since 1992.

Whether he signs it or not, China-US relations will be as rough as they are, and will remain very much so in the foreseeable future, but Hong Kong’s unique and strategic role is likely to suffer in the longer run.

Trump’s latest confusing message – that he would stand with Hong Kong protesters, but also stand with President Xi Jinping, whom he called a “friend” – has led to wild interpretations.

The US president was honest enough not to hide his desire for a trade agreement with China, which he knew would only be complicated by this bill.

Beijing wants the deal, too, but only on a fair basis – Xi made it clear last Friday when meeting former US secretary of state Henry Kissinger, who was attending the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in Beijing.

Trump claimed he had convinced Xi not to send in troops to crack down on the Hong Kong protests. Believe it or not, his ambiguous stand could be but a bargaining tactic with China as the two countries are to resume a new round of talks this week.

Henry Kissinger, the former US secretary of state, speaks during the National Security Commission on November 5. Photo: AFP

But even if Trump eventually vetoes it, given the strong support from both the House and Senate, Congress could override him and turn the bill into law anyway.

Such a hard truth on Capitol Hill well explains why China has reacted so fiercely these past days.

Six of its official departments – the State Council’s Hong Kong & Macau Affairs Office, Beijing’s liaison office in Hong Kong, the Commissioner’s Office of the Foreign Ministry in Hong Kong, and the ministry itself, plus the US Congress’ counterpart, the foreign affairs committee of the National People’s Congress, as well as that of China’s top political advisory body, the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference – have all strongly condemned the bill.

State broadcaster CCTV, within one day last week, aired seven commentaries slamming the US Congress’ decision and warned of possible retaliatory measures, not to mention many critical pieces by other mainland media outlets.

Anyone watching all this would conclude that China-US relations have sunk to yet another low – what else could it be?

President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan. Photo: AP

But with or without this particular bill, relations between the world’s two major powers would neither be much worse nor better, actually, as they have been problematic enough since the trade war broke out last year.

The whole world has also come to realise it is not just a tariff war but a tech war as well, even a new cold war involving almost all fronts, given the profound ideological and value conflicts between the two countries.

In mainland China, from official narrative to general public opinion, in particular among many of the country’s business elite, a widely shared view is that a long-running, uncertain and unstable state of China-US relations is but the new normal and will last even in the post-Trump era.

To put it simply, they will be in a lasting “fighting-while-negotiating” mode.

Now that Hong Kong has been dragged into this “talk-fight” game, economically and politically, negative impacts are unavoidable. But given the deeply intertwined Hong Kong-US business and financial connections, collateral damage will also be inflicted on American interests in the city.

One ironic outcome: while the US may not be able to benefit either, once Hong Kong loses its current special trade status because of the bill, politicians in Washington are advertently or otherwise turning it more towards becoming another Chinese city.

Even more ironically, it will be in the name of safeguarding Hong Kong’s “one country, two systems” governing formula.

This article appeared in the South China Morning Post print edition as: US-China tension is new normal regardless of HK bill
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