Hong Kong protests: can opposition win big at Legco elections or will new national security law ruin plans?
- Opposition bloc holds on to ambitious target of ‘35-plus’ seats, but braces itself for new obstacles
- Splintered camp continuing discussions on ways to trim its long list of candidates
The anti-government protests that gripped Hong Kong last year shattered long-standing assumptions about the direction political change would take. But as the first weeks of unrest in June turned into months, one realisation grew undeniably clear – the fortunes of opposition lawmakers had taken an astonishing turn.
How Beijing’s plan for security law caught Hong Kong deputies off guard
An advantage denied to the opposition ever since the city’s handover to Chinese sovereignty in 1997 was finally in reach. Or so it seemed. Beijing’s surprise introduction late last month of a national security law for Hong Kong that would outlaw acts of subversion, secession, terrorism or conspiring with foreign influences has forced the camp to rethink its strategy with less than three months to go before voters head to the polls. Unpredictability once again reigns.
While admitting that the law threatened their election hopes, opposition leaders have vowed to press on, eager to demonstrate Hongkongers’ resistance to Beijing’s tightening grip on the city.
“If we cannot stay united and demonstrate our will to fight back, many protesters will be disappointed,” Democratic Party leader Wu Chi-wai said.
“We have to prepare for the worst,” Tai said. “They could ban us from running or even disqualify us during the campaign. And even if we succeed, they might disqualify some of us to make us fall short of forming the majority. That’s the political reality.”
Opposition members across the board had agreed on the rules for the primary and were working with district councillors and “yellow” businesses sympathetic to their cause to organise offices and shops as polling stations, according to Tai. If the plan works out, the first round of voting is expected to take place on July 11 and 12.
“From the perspective of civil engagement, pushing ahead with the campaign can still divert the panic and desperation shared among the public,” the University of Hong Kong professor said. “The process is more important than the results.”
But two formidable challenges stand in the way of victory – independents and the body of voters who cast ballots under their profession who have historically leaned towards conservative.
The legislature’s 70 seats are evenly split among lawmakers directly elected to represent the city’s five geographical constituencies and those elected by the 29 functional constituencies that represent various professional and trade groups.
The geographical constituencies return between five and nine members from candidates elected by proportional representation. In the 2016 election, there were between 12 and 22 candidates on the voting lists. Candidates for functional constituencies must be from those sectors and be elected by workers registered in the respective sectors.
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In 2016, the opposition camp garnered nearly 60 per cent of the votes in geographical constituencies, winning 19 seats, but managed to win only 10 functional seats, for a total of 29.
Given the results of last year’s district council polls, the camp estimated it could win at least 21 geographical seats in September. If it could win just four more functional seats than it did in 2016 – taking it to 14 this time around – the opposition would have 35. A majority in Legco would be a “massive constitutional weapon” to veto the budget and disrupt government, Tai said.
This is not the first time Tai, who is not affiliated with any party, is pushing the opposition to cooperate. In 2016, he tried to get parties to field fewer candidates to avoid splitting voters.
When that failed, he called for “strategic voting” which also made little impact. A consensus could not be reached then because parties wanted to maximise their own chances after the Occupy protests. But the opposition had experienced a breakthrough since then, he insisted.
“But, it is very clear that this year’s election is about the whole camp and the parties have been very open-minded and flexible, open to the views of independents.”
What is Hong Kong’s national security law?
Winning over the independents could prove pivotal. Some, such as Tuen Mun district councillor Nigel Lee Ka-wai, who was eyeing a Legco seat in the district council (second) functional constituency, said he was open to taking part in a primary.
But others are sceptical. Tuen Mun district councillor and independent Michael Mo Kwan-tai, who was considering contesting the New Territories West geographical constituency, said he did not see the need for a primary, even after attending two meetings that Tai arranged. “I doubt the public will want to vote in primaries,” Mo said.
Deep-seated conflicts within the camp – between parties and independents, and between established parties and localists – were not yet settled. “If no mutual benefits are arranged, the primaries will only serve to push losers away,” he said.
But aside from internal disagreements, the opposition faces an uphill battle in the functional constituencies. The bloc hopes to gain four seats in engineering; catering; wholesale and retail; and the architectural, surveying, planning and landscape sector. It has not won a seat in the first three since the city’s handover.
Yuen Long district councillor Tommy Cheung Sau-yin, a former student leader running as an independent, has already declared his intention to challenge incumbent Peter Shiu Ka-fai in the wholesale and retail sector.
Unions and student group threaten to strike over national security law
“Functional constituencies are always a tough battle, but in the current atmosphere, your political stance is the overriding issue in every sector,” Cheung said. He is betting that middle-of-the-road and newly registered voters will lean towards the pan-democrats.
03:39
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The camp is optimistic about its chances in the catering functional consistency, which has a sharp 43.7 per cent increase in the number of voters since the 2016 election, according to the provisional register of voters. The camp believes voters heeded its repeated calls to get registered.
Members of the pro-establishment camp said the pan-democrats’ aggressive “35-plus” campaign proved the last straw for Beijing, already angered by last year’s social unrest. Leaders on the mainland pushed ahead with the national security law because they were unable to countenance the opposition taking control of Legco.
“The pan-democrats are not talking about vetoing the budget once. They want to create a deadlock in the government,” said pro-Beijing lawmaker Priscilla Leung Mei-fun, a member of the Basic Law Committee. “That will be a constitutional crisis, and Beijing will not allow it to happen.”
Leung said the national security law showed Beijing’s determination to get the city’s affairs under control, though she declined to say whether the legislation would lead to candidates being disqualified.
Lawmaker Horace Cheung Kwok-kwan, of the pro-establishment Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong, agreed the opposition’s ambitions to take over Legco had provoked Beijing, but said he believed that the central government was unconcerned that the law might push the undecided towards the opposition.
“There is very strong backing for the law from our supporters. I hope voters in the middle will reflect on whether protesters’ ‘if we burn, you burn with us’ approach is the solution for our city.”
02:23
Beijing remains ‘very firm’ on national security law for Hong Kong, says city’s leader Carrie Lam
Another source in the pro-establishment camp, who preferred to remain anonymous, suggested Beijing could postpone the elections. “We can delay the polls if violent protests come back again,” he said. “Why can’t we?”
Political scholar Ma Ngok, of Chinese University, said it was still too early to predict which way the vote would go, given the uncertainties of the national security law, the possible disqualification of candidates and even the arrest of opposition politicians.
The “35-plus” campaign had also lost some steam, he said. The pan-democrats had said they would use a Legco majority to prevent the government from introducing national security legislation as required under Article 23 of the Basic Law. “But now Beijing has already taken things into its own hands.”
The opposition had to re-examine how best to win voters’ support, he said. “The public rage has not yet subsided, but the camp needs to reboot how it pitches the ‘35-plus’ campaign to mobilise support.”
The new law would make it harder to defeat pro-establishment candidates in sufficient numbers, Civic Party leader Alvin Yeung Ngok-kiu said, adding: “When they behave like 12 players on a football field, with the referee on their side, we can only do our best.”
Additional reporting by Sum Lok-kei and Jeffie Lam