Explainer | What might lie ahead for Hong Kong if Beijing moves to disqualify four opposition lawmakers over filibustering

A massive political storm erupted in Hong Kong’s legislature again after sources revealed on Monday that China’s top legislative body was mulling over plans to disqualify lawmakers in a bid to curb filibustering. In response, the city’s 19 opposition lawmakers raised the stakes in an impending showdown with the local and Beijing governments by threatening to resign all at once if anyone among them was unseated. The four facing the risk of being thrown out of the Legislative Council were the Civic Party’s Alvin Yeung Ngok-kiu, Dennis Kwok and Kwok Ka-ki, and Kenneth Leung of the Professionals Guild. The four were all barred in July from contesting the Legco elections, which were subsequently postponed for a year by the government over Covid-19 pandemic concerns. The Post looks at the issues at stake and implications of Beijing’s reported plan. What exactly is Beijing’s plan? Sources said the resolution, to be revealed and endorsed by the National People’s Congress Standing Committee (NPCSC) on Wednesday, would clarify the requirement for legislators to uphold Hong Kong’s Basic Law and pledge allegiance to the city. The top legislative body was expected to make “patriotism” – respect for the Chinese nation and a wish not to impair Hong Kong’s prosperity and stability – a legal requirement for lawmakers, paving the way to unseat filibustering opposition legislators. Was Beijing’s controversial move expected? On the face of it, the move appeared to be sudden as very few in political circles had expected a new item – on Hong Kong lawmakers’ eligibility to serve in the legislature – to be added to the agenda of the NPCSC’s two-day meeting starting on Tuesday. But traces of it could be found since the beginning of Legco’s extended term in October, when the pro-establishment bloc aggressively attacked their opponents over their usual stalling tactics. On the second week of the extended term, Alice Mak Mei-kuen, of the Beijing-friendly Federation of Trade Unions, called on the Legco president to look into whether the opposition’s delaying tactics had violated the national security law, which stipulates that anyone found to be “seriously interfering in, disrupting or undermining the performance of duties and functions” of the local or central governments is guilty of subversion. She was soon joined by Junius Ho Kwan-yiu, who vowed to write to Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor last week asking her to disqualify filibustering lawmakers over “misfeasance in public office”. Pro-Beijing newspapers Wen Wei Po and Ta Kung Pao also criticised the behaviour of the opposition camp in their editorials in what appeared to be a coordinated effort over the past month, which pan-democrats saw as an indication that Beijing would intervene sooner or later. Is it a first for lawmakers to be disqualified? No. The first disqualification took place four years ago when the NPCSC stepped in to penalise newly elected, localist lawmakers Sixtus Baggio Leung Chung-hang and Yau Wai-ching for distorting their oaths of office. It issued an interpretation of the Basic Law’s Article 104 that ruled public officials would have to take their oaths “sincerely” and “solemnly” or face disqualification. Leung, Yau and four other opposition lawmakers were later unseated as a result of legal bids mounted by the government. In late July this year, four opposition lawmakers were among 12 candidates who were barred from contesting the next Legco elections. Key reasons cited by the election officials included their previous calls for foreign governments, including the United States, to sanction Beijing and Hong Kong. What are the usual procedures for disqualifying a lawmaker? While it remained unclear how the NPCSC would put into action its plan to disqualify at least four opposition lawmakers, local legal experts asserted that Legco members – who had already been legally sworn in – could only be “censured for misbehaviour or breach of oath” by a vote of two-thirds of the legislature, according to Article 79 of the Basic Law. The pro-establishment camp, which currently occupies 41 seats in the legislature, is one short of a two-thirds majority. What are the implications of the NPCSC’s move? Analysts believe China decided to get tough on Hong Kong since the fourth plenary session in Beijing last year, at which the central government’s authority was prioritised. “The central government is decisive and determined to clear problems in Hong Kong in one go,” said Bruce Lui Ping-kuen, a China watcher and senior lecturer in journalism at Baptist University. “They will play within their system and principles aiming to restore authority.” He said the green light granted by the NPCSC in August – extending the term of Legco by at least one year because of the coronavirus pandemic, while allowing some lawmakers originally barred from re-election to stay – was a “test” for the opposition camp. “The central government is demonstrating who has the power, and what is the new bottom line,” he added. “We can expect the future of Hong Kong’s legislature to be like Macau’s – with very few opposition members, and not accepting any kind of radical.” Lau Siu-kai, vice-chairman of semi-official think tank the Chinese Association of Hong Kong and Macau Studies, believed the central government would no longer allow opposition forces that obstructed the proper running of Legco and the government. “The central government would like to see loyal and healthy opposition,” he said. “But the pan-democrats are disloyal opposition, always challenging and undermining the legitimacy of the constitution, while seeking foreign interference.” Delay to Hong Kong leader’s annual speech shows policy direction ‘has shifted to Beijing’ What changes in Legco might lie ahead? Pan-democrats originally hoped to stay in the legislature to fight unpopular bills the government might try to bulldoze through. The NPCSC’s resolution and the camp’s mass resignation in response might therefore clear obstacles for the government. Contentious proposals they plan to block include the government’s proposal to allow Hongkongers living on the mainland to vote in the city’s elections as well as a HK$550 million funding request for a preliminary study of its Lantau Tomorrow Vision, which aims to create a 1,000-hectare reclaimed site off Lantau Island for a new business district. Meanwhile, pro-establishment lawmakers plan to propose amendments to the legislature’s house rules in a bid to stop their rivals looking into police’s handling of anti-government protests last year, while seeking to prioritise their own investigation into alleged foreign interference in the unrest.