Hong Kong electoral revamp: opposition camp faces steep hurdles in running for legislature and winning will still leave them on the sidelines

Beijing wants ‘absolute control’ over governing and now holds political fate of pan-democrats in its hands, say analysts

The overhaul will leave them with handful of seats at most, and that is provided they first win approval from vetting committee

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The Chinese flag and the Hong Kong flag fly outside the Legislative Council. Photo: Winson Wong

Published: 11:48pm, 30 Mar 2021Updated: 1:16am, 31 Mar 2021

The future of Hong Kong’s opposition remains very much in doubt after Beijing’s drastic electoral overhaul that would guarantee it “absolute and total control” over the city’s political structure, deterring many members from attempting to jump into the fray, scholars and politicians said on Tuesday.

But even if they did decide to give the new system a chance, opposition hopefuls would have to secure nominations from all five sectors of the newly empowered Election Committee, including the ultra-Beijing loyalists in the new fifth sector. Many in the opposition were sceptical they would get the minimum number of nominations of two votes per sector required, while others felt it was too demeaning a hoop to jump through.

Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor, however, dismissed concerns that the overhaul was aimed at decimating the opposition, insisting there had always been “patriotic opposition” who would be able to secure nominations.

As part of the revamp, the Legislative Council’s geographical constituencies will be reduced from 35 seats to 20 – dramatically shrinking direct voting. The constituencies will be divided into 10 with two seats each, which will be returned by direct voting. In the past, 35 seats were returned from five geographical constituencies.

A voter may choose one candidate by secret ballot and the top two who obtain the most number of votes will be elected.

As was widely expected, the Election Committee that picks the city’s leader will get 40 seats, the biggest share in Legco. Each candidate must secure backing from at least 10 but no more than 20 members of the 1,500-strong committee, and the 40 candidates who obtain the most votes will take the seats.

The remaining 30 seats in Legco will go to the trade-based functional constituencies – which will be picked by designated voters. Six seats returned from the district councils will be scrapped, and Beijing has added two seats returning for the commercial sector, led by the pro-establishment camp, and a single seat for a delegate from the top national advisory bodies.